Analysis from a bunch that tracks fossil gas and different vitality initiatives reveals that simply 15 nations, led by China and India, account for 98% of coal-fired energy crops below growth worldwide.
World Vitality Monitor (GEM), a San Francisco, California-based non-governmental group, in its newest World Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) mentioned China and India alone account for 86% of that complete. An article posted September 3 on the Carbon Transient web site, written by the GCPT analysis workforce at GEM, offered context for the report, and mentioned the variety of nations with coal-fired energy in both pre-construction or development phases has dropped to 40 this yr, down from 75 nations growing initiatives in 2014. Carbon Transient is a UK-based web site that specializes “within the science and coverage of local weather change.”
GEM’s GCPT catalogs coal-fired energy models with 30 MW or extra of era capability. The biannual report was first revealed in 2014.
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The report mentioned that regardless of a transfer away from coal-fired energy in lots of nations, the variety of new proposed coal-fueled models is outpacing the variety of initiatives being canceled, together with the quantity of era being retired. GEM’s analysis confirmed that greater than 60 GW of latest coal-fired era capability was both proposed in revived within the first half of this yr, “in comparison with 33.7 GW that was shelved or canceled over the identical interval.”
GEM on Tuesday wrote that the most recent GCPT appears to be like at “a number of the most important traits driving the continued growth of coal throughout the 15 largest markets, drawing perception from the GCPT, in addition to wider context.” The nations embody China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe, together with Vietnam, Laos, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, South Africa, Pakistan, the Philippines, Kyrgyzstan, and Mongolia.
Latest Resurgence in Coal Energy
The report mentioned a resurgence in coal-fired era started in China in 2022, with India displaying an uptick in 2024. “The truth is, as proven within the determine beneath, nearly all [97%] of the brand new and newly revived proposals within the first half of 2024 are positioned in China and India.” The researchers additionally famous that “of the 1.8 GW of newly proposed capability in the remainder of the world, greater than 40% is sponsored by Chinese language corporations.”
GEM mentioned that as of June of this yr, China had “1,147 GW of operational coal capability unfold throughout almost 3,200 models, representing greater than half [54%] of the world’s complete working coal capability.” The GCPT mentioned China authorised greater than 100 GW of latest coal-fired capability in each 2022 and 2023, however “The nation drastically diminished approvals for brand new coal energy within the first half of 2024, granting permission to solely 12 initiatives totaling 9.1 GW.”
China, although, started development on greater than 41 GW of latest coal-fired capability within the first half of this yr, in response to GEM, with greater than 8.6 GW of latest era getting into business operation from January by June. The report notes that “the Chinese language authorities has a goal of commissioning 80 GW of coal capability in 2024, suggesting a possible surge within the second half of the yr.”
The GCPT mentioned that retirements of coal-fired models in China totaled 1.1 GW of capability within the first half of 2024, and mentioned that China has retired or shuttered 12.3 GW of coal energy from 2021 to this yr. The report additionally mentioned, “China should take away 17.7 GW of capability from its coal energy fleet within the subsequent 18 months if it desires to satisfy its promise to close down 30 GW of coal energy in the course of the 14th ‘5-Yr Plan’ interval.” China’s 5-Yr Plans are financial and social growth initiatives issued by the Chinese language Communist Social gathering. The present plan covers 2021-2025.
Paris Settlement Sparks Carbon-Impartial Targets
GEM on Tuesday famous that “The signing of the Paris Settlement in 2015 kick-started momentum within the international shift away from coal. Up to now, 75 nations have established carbon neutrality objectives for 2050 or earlier, and over 100 nations are coal-free or have a longtime coal phaseout date in 2040 or earlier.” The group additionally mentioned the “pipeline of coal below growth has declined by 62% in comparison with a decade in the past, from 1,576 GW in 2014 to 604 GW immediately, in response to the most recent information from the GCPT.”
GEM famous that not one of the 15 nations persevering with to steer growth of coal-fired era “have a longtime coal phaseout goal.” The GCPT reviews that “590 GW of that 604 GW [in development] is concentrated in a handful of nations, dominated by China [70%] and India [16%). The other 14 GW, or 2% of the total capacity, is spread across 25 countries, each with less than 1.5 GW under development.”
Some of the 15 countries, including Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Africa, have so-called “just energy transition partnership (JETP)” agreements to transition away from coal-fired power. The countries’ energy plans, though, still allow for development of coal-fueled generation.
GEM officials on Tuesday wrote that, “The JETP agreements have also yet to resolve several thorny issues, such as how to treat ‘captive’ coal plants that supply electricity off-grid, typically to large industrial sites. Increased JETP ambitions could help these countries achieve Paris-aligned emissions reductions.”
The authors noted that China remains “involved in coal development in Indonesia, Zimbabwe, Laos, Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia, including some capacity proposed after China’s 2021 pledge to stop building new coal plants abroad. Apparent exceptions to the 2021 moratorium have emerged for projects designed for captive use or proposed as expansions at existing China-backed projects.” The report also said Russia is supporting “many new coal proposals in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.”
—Darrell Proctor is senior editor for POWER (@POWERmagazine).
