Whereas sure photo voltaic manufacturing steps are measured in nanometers, atomic layers, and fractions of a share or cent, ingot and wafer manufacturing extra intently resembles heavy business. Gleaming crystalline silicon ingots emerge from towering pullers to be sliced by diamond wire saws into iridescent, black sq., or rectangular, monocrystalline wafers.
The ingot and wafering manufacturing steps are energy hungry and produce waste within the type of kerf slurry – the residue ingot materials from between the sliced wafers. These are the PV manufacturing steps most extremely concentrated in China.
Jessica Jin is the principal analysis analyst for photo voltaic and clear vitality expertise at S&P World Commodity Insights Shanghai. Jin reported that in 2023, China accounted for 96% of worldwide ingot and wafer manufacturing. She added that the wholesale swap inside PV manufacturing from multicrystalline to monocrystalline expertise, in and round 2018, was decisive for China’s dominance of the manufacturing step. That dominance has prolonged upstream.
“This was led by Longi, as everybody is aware of,” she mentioned. “Since then, Chinese language gear producers working with Longi maintain bettering their expertise and in addition add capability and so they all develop up with the market enlargement in China.”
The event is one that’s widespread all through China’s photo voltaic success story. By means of aggressive scaling and shut cooperation with expertise and materials suppliers, Chinese language producers have been capable of quickly adapt new expertise and manufacturing processes, outcompeting European and American rivals first on price, after which on efficiency and effectivity.
“These days, we see most of those gear suppliers are additionally in China as effectively,” mentioned Jin. The outcome being that in 2024 there are few credible pathways for non-Chinese language producers involved in growing ingot and wafer capability.
European setbacks
PV manufacturing advisory Exawatt, now part of CRU Group, finds that the one notable ingot and wafer manufacturing hub exterior of China is in South East Asia. Exawatt tallied some 35 GW of wafer amenities in operation in South East Asia by the top of 2023, with that probably increasing to 45 GW by the top of 2024.
Whereas expansions are underneath means in South East Asia, the other is the case in Europe. The 12 months 2023 noticed each Norsun and Norwegian Crystal droop or wind up their operations in Europe – successfully decreasing wafer manufacturing in Europe to zero. These selections have been adopted shortly after by that of, presumably, a key provider. Polysilicon producer REC Photo voltaic Norway started winding up its operations in Kristiansand, Norway – which had an annual output of 8,000 tons – and in Heroya, Norway – with 5,500 tons – in November 2023.
Norwegian Crystal had closed its 500 MW ingot facility in Glomfjord, Norway, a month earlier. As lately as 2022, it had been pursuing plans to develop a 6 GW ingot and wafer facility however had been unable to safe funding, forcing it to start liquidation of the corporate.
In September, compatriot Norsun introduced layoffs and a manufacturing halt at its 1 GW facility in Årdal, Norway. Tellingly, Norsun is now making an attempt to determine a 5 GW ingot and wafer manufacturing facility in the US. In August 2023, it introduced it had raised NOK90 million ($8.5 million) in capital in pursuit of the plan, alongside the €53.6 million ($58 million) it was awarded by the European Union Innovation Fund.
States potential
Subsidies can be found for photo voltaic producers in Europe however they pale compared to what’s on provide in the US. Within the first 12 months after the US Inflation Discount Act (IRA) was signed into legislation, bulletins have been made totaling 155 GW of annual photo voltaic manufacturing capability, proper throughout the worth chain, in accordance with commerce physique the Photo voltaic Vitality Industries Affiliation. Nonetheless, few have been for ingot and wafer manufacturing.
“In accordance with our mannequin, the inducement is definitely superb for manufacturing in the US,” mentioned S&P World’s Jin. “But it surely’s not merely concerning the manufacturing price but in addition different prices, just like the recycling, building price, and so forth.”
Jin mentioned that securing environmental approvals for wafer operations could show troublesome exterior of China. Though she did observe that previously 5 years, most of the waste and recycling points from wafer manufacturing have been addressed.
South Korean module maker Qcells stands out as an exception. In January 2024, Qcells introduced a $2.5 billion funding resolution which included 3.3 GW of annual ingot, wafer, and cell manufacturing capability, to be executed in phases. The manufacturing will contain the institution of a brand new manufacturing base, in Cartersville, Georgia – exterior of the town of Atlanta in the US. It follows the enlargement of Qcells’ module meeting operations, to five.1 GW capability, in Dalton, Georgia, in the US, accomplished in October 2023.
Provide deal
In January 2024, Qcells introduced it had expanded an present 2.5 GW module provide and engineering, procurement, and building providers cope with Microsoft to 12 GW of provide over eight years. The businesses say the tasks coated by the deal will likely be provided by Qcells’ “absolutely built-in photo voltaic provide chain manufacturing unit in Cartersville,” to the tune of 1.5 GW per 12 months via 2032.
The deal gives offtake certainty to Qcells, with one-third of its ingot and wafer output accounted for in cooperation with a bankable counterparty. For its half, by working with Qcells on this means, Microsoft hopes to speed up its renewable vitality deployment by locking in provide and driving large-scale home manufacturing of photo voltaic modules within the course of.
“There may be at all times one thing that makes provide to the US unsure,” mentioned Alex Barrows, head of PV at Exawatt. “I can see an enchantment to locking in one thing that provides you some certainty – even in case you’re paying a premium.” PV module costs are greater in the US and there stays a fancy internet of tariffs, exemptions, border seizures, moratoria, and authorized challenges, all of which might delay remaining venture realization or blow out prices.
European producers problem ‘plea’
On Jan. 27, 2024, the European Photo voltaic Manufacturing Council (ESMC) issued a “plea for survival” to European policymakers. It argued that international PV module producers have been dumping modules, or promoting under price. It additionally pointed to the selections to stop European operations taken by Norsun, REC Photo voltaic Norway, and Norwegian Crystals – together with the winding up of the German module manufacturing strains of Swiss firm Meyer Burger. “The closure of PV module producers can also be closing prospects to develop different elements of the PV worth chain and European materials and part producers are thus additionally at very excessive danger,” the ESMC mentioned in an announcement. “Shedding almost all European PV module producers proper now would have irreversible detrimental penalties for your complete EU PV manufacturing business,” mentioned the ESMC’s Žygimantas Vaičiūnas. He mentioned that emergency measures have to be launched by the center of February 2024, “on the newest.”
Barrows famous that Qcells’ mother or father firm, Hanwha, is South Korean somewhat than Chinese language. It has entry to American polysilicon from REC Silicon and is on the best way to turning into a vertically built-in United States producer – making it effectively positioned to supply stability within the face of potential coverage turmoil or geopolitical shocks. “I really feel like it’s a fairly good solution to lock in some safety,” mentioned Barrows.
But regardless of the IRA, greater costs, and benefits for regionally produced merchandise, Barrows stays skeptical of the prospects of many introduced ingot and wafer amenities in the US. Alongside Qcells and Norsun; Convalt Vitality, CubicPV, and India’s Vikram Photo voltaic have introduced American manufacturing plans that stretch up the availability chain to ingots and wafers.
“I feel we’ll get a bit [of ingot and wafer capacity] within the US however nowhere close to what has been introduced,” mentioned Barrows. “Thirty-five GW of capability by the top of 2026 has been introduced however I’d really suspect it’s extra seemingly that 15 GW to twenty GW will likely be put in.”
Kerfless promise
On the record of aspiring producers, CubicPV stands out. Not solely has it introduced its intention to develop 10 GW of conventional ingot and wafer expertise, it’s also a proponent of “direct wafer” utilization. The corporate’s chief govt officer (CEO), Frank van Mierlo, previously led 1366 Applied sciences. That enterprise had tried to commercialize “direct wafer” expertise by producing multicrystalline photo voltaic wafers from a liquid, somewhat than cleft from a monocrystalline ingot.
Qcells labored in partnership with 1366 Applied sciences and achieved notable conversion effectivity achievements with the latter’s expertise, together with cells with greater than 20% effectivity. Nonetheless, when the PV business switched to monocrystalline expertise, 1366’s wafers have been left stranded on the fallacious aspect of growth.
Germany’s NexWafe is pursuing a wafer expertise not dissimilar to that utilized by 1366. The NexWafe strategy is described as epitaxial and entails gases being deposited onto a seed substrate from which it may be separated and common right into a cell. Each approaches may be described as “kerfless” wafer manufacturing as they dispose of wafer slicing and the waste kerf it produces.
In October 2023, NexWafe broke floor at a 250 MW manufacturing unit in Germany the place it can make investments not less than €70 million. Curiously, NexWafe CEO Davor Sutija was the previous president and CEO of SiNor, which ultimately grew to become Norwegian Crystals.
Manufacturing alternate options to the mature Czochralski course of for monocrystalline ingot pulling and diamond wire sawing should overcome capital expenditure, throughput, and effectivity challenges to grow to be commercially viable. Excessive cell efficiencies on epitaxial or direct wafer expertise haven’t but been reached, nor has aggressive throughput from a manufacturing unit at scale.
The institution of any new ingot and wafer capability with any expertise may also happen underneath intense price competitors. The 12 months 2023 noticed module costs decline by greater than 30% on world markets and there’s a glut of product in the marketplace. “We’re undoubtedly anticipating a wash within the business subsequent 12 months,” mentioned S&P World’s Jin.
But, in occasions of bankruptcies and consolidation, there are alternatives for “step change” or next-generation applied sciences. European or United States firms could prosper whereas oversupply grips their Chinese language rivals. NexWafe and CubicPV are pursuing new approaches to wafer manufacturing regardless of manufacturing-segment adversity.
In November 2023, NexWafe appointed Rick Schwerdtfeger as chief expertise officer and André Seemaier as chief monetary officer as the corporate strikes into the commercialization part of its gas-to-wafer expertise.
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