Spencer and Christy’s new local weather sensitivity paper has been revealed – and its LOWER. • Watts Up With That?

From Dr. Roy Spencer:

If we assume ALL *noticed* warming of the deep oceans and land since 1970 has been on account of people, we get an efficient local weather sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 of round 1.9 deg. C. That is significantly decrease than the official *theoretical* model-based IPCC vary of two.5 to 4.0 deg. C.

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2023/09/our-new-climate-sensitivity-paper-has-been-published/

Through a Phys.org article:

Spencer and Christy’s local weather mannequin, primarily based upon goal measured information, discovered carbon dioxide doesn’t have as large of an impact of warming of the ambiance in comparison with different local weather fashions.

“For over 30 years, dozens of extremely refined computerized local weather fashions primarily based upon concept have been unable to agree on a solution. That’s why we developed our personal one-dimensional local weather mannequin to supply a solution,” says. Dr. Spencer.

…

When in comparison with different present local weather fashions, the analysis outcomes from Spencer and Christy’s one-dimensional local weather mannequin approached the underside finish of the vary, 1.9° Celsius. The decrease UAH worth signifies that the local weather impression of accelerating carbon dioxide concentrations is way much less that that primarily based on different local weather fashions.

The paper, revealed in   Theoretical and Utilized Climatology:

Efficient local weather sensitivity distributions from a 1D mannequin of world ocean and land temperature tendencies, 1970–2021

Summary:
Present theoretically primarily based Earth system fashions (ESMs) produce Efficient Local weather Sensitivities (EffCS) that vary over an element of three, with 80% of these fashions producing stronger world warming tendencies for 1970–2021 than do observations. To make a extra observationally primarily based estimate of EffCS, a 1D time-dependent forcing-feedback mannequin of temperature departures from vitality equilibrium is used to match measured ranges of global-average floor and sub-surface land and ocean temperature tendencies throughout 1970–2021. In response to 2 totally different radiative forcing situations, a full vary of three mannequin free parameters are evaluated to provide suits to a variety of noticed floor temperature tendencies (± 2σ) from 4 totally different land datasets and three ocean datasets, in addition to deep-ocean temperature tendencies and borehole-based pattern retrievals over land. Land-derived EffCS are bigger than over the ocean, and EffCS is decrease utilizing the newer Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, 1.86 °C world EffCS, ± 34% vary 1.48–2.15 °C) than the older Consultant Focus Pathway forcing (RCP6, 2.49 °C world common EffCS, ± 34% vary 2.04–2.87 °C). The strongest dependence of the EffCS outcomes is on the assumed radiative forcing dataset, underscoring the function of radiative forcing uncertainty in figuring out the sensitivity of the local weather system to growing greenhouse gasoline concentrations from observations alone. The outcomes are in line with earlier observation-based research that concluded EffCS in the course of the observational interval is on the low finish of the vary produced by present ESMs.

Full paper with open entry is right here:
https://hyperlink.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-023-04634-7

For an outline of local weather sensitivity, see Every little thing Local weather