Excessive rates of interest, inflation, and buyer uncertainty might decelerate residential PV development in Sweden this 12 months, regardless of file photo voltaic installations in 2023, however curiosity in utility-scale PV stays sturdy.
Between 1.2 GW and 1.4 GW of photo voltaic was deployed in Sweden in 2023, in keeping with estimates printed by Svensk Solenergi, the Swedish photo voltaic power affiliation. About 1 GW was deployed in 2022.
In 2023, round 96,000 photo voltaic cell installations have been linked to the Swedish electrical energy grid, up roughly 70% from the 55,000 put in in 2022. Svensk Solenergi mentioned exercise peaked within the second quarter of 2023, after which installations fell on account of excessive rates of interest and inflation.
The affiliation predicts 65,000 photo voltaic cell installations this 12 months, down 32% 12 months on 12 months. Svensk Solenergi mentioned the detrimental forecast is pushed by a weaker economic system and elevated uncertainty amongst clients, in addition to a smaller variety of pre-notifications submitted to grid firms. In 2023, there have been 84,000 pre-notifications, in comparison with 95,000 pre-notifications in 2022.
“An necessary motive for the decline is elevated rates of interest and falling actual wages, which dampen demand. The truth that electrical energy costs have decreased in comparison with 2022 additionally impacts the willingness to speculate,” mentioned Anna Werner, the CEO of Svensk Solenergi. “The Swedish Tax Company’s stance on inexperienced tax deductions for batteries has additionally contributed to elevated uncertainty amongst customers, which has contaminated the photo voltaic cell market. It is unlucky.”
Svensk Solenergi expects between 1 GW to 1.3 GW of recent solar energy in 2024.
“There may be numerous curiosity in constructing utility photo voltaic in Sweden. Many alternative gamers wish to get into the market and the variety of introduced and unannounced tasks are lengthy,” mentioned Svensk Solenergi Technical Supervisor Oskar Öhrman.
He famous that round 360 tasks with a mixed complete energy of 11 GW are ready on allow choices in Sweden. “The likelihood to get a grid connection to a suitable value is a very powerful bottleneck and the place numerous tasks will fail,” he added.
In October, development started on Sweden’s largest photo voltaic farm to this point. Öhrman mentioned the 100 MW PV venture will probably be commissioned this 12 months.
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