The query of the week within the cleantech world and the funding world is: What number of automobiles did Tesla produce and ship in Q3 2023? The numbers must be printed within the subsequent day or so, however as we eagerly await these, and as we strategy Monday, what are essentially the most knowledgeable estimates?
As I’ve indicated earlier than, I believe “Troy Teslike” is at the moment the most effective on the earth at monitoring Tesla manufacturing and supply numbers and information, and thus creates the most effective manufacturing and gross sales estimates. His newest estimate, as of yesterday, is that Tesla delivered 441,000 automobiles within the third quarter. That’s fairly a distance wanting the Wall Avenue analyst consensus of 454,809 deliveries.
Notably, his manufacturing estimate is even decrease — 428,519 automobiles.
You may see from his tweet (linked above) that knowledge sources embody DMV VIN knowledge, gross sales knowledge from the China Passenger Automobile Affiliation (CPCA), automobile insurance coverage knowledge, his order monitoring spreadsheets, registration knowledge from 24 international locations, weekly manufacturing price and manufacturing milestone bulletins from Tesla, stock knowledge, export knowledge, transport knowledge, and statements from Tesla in convention calls. That’s fairly complete. Troy’s private goal along with his end-of-quarter estimates is to not miss the precise quantity by greater than 3%. He’s obtained a fairly good document on this, too.
On this tweet, you possibly can see how his estimates are damaged out by nation and manufacturing unit throughout all 4 quarters of 2023 and 2023 as an entire:
Right here is my detailed desk for Tesla deliveries. The ultimate estimates for Q3 2023 are as follows:
• My estimate: 441,000
• Analyst consensus: 454,809Half 2/3 pic.twitter.com/OOB25ZKyfX
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 30, 2023
Right here’s his breakdown for manufacturing:
Right here is my detailed manufacturing desk. I estimate 428,519 manufacturing in Q3.
Half 3/3 pic.twitter.com/rK9QU83BWU
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 30, 2023
If you happen to look carefully on the Mannequin 3 estimates for Q3, you possibly can see that he expects gross sales are down the world over in comparison with Q2 2023, however the largest drop by far is in China. He’s anticipating a drop of greater than 24,000 items. Naturally, this relates partly to the Mannequin 3 Highland refresh and manufacturing unit retooling for that. However does rising competitors and an ongoing value conflict come into play as effectively? Who is aware of? However the 4th quarter ought to inform us extra.
How about Mannequin Y? On this case, Troy estimates roughly 13,000 extra deliveries in China within the third quarter versus the 2nd. He additionally expects about 10,000 extra Mannequin Y deliveries outdoors of China, Europe, and North America in Q3 than in Q2.
So, that’s what we have now for now so far as a really knowledgeable estimate of Tesla deliveries and manufacturing within the quarter that simply ended at midnight. What are your ideas on these estimates?
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Tesla Gross sales in 2023, 2024, and 2030
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