Europe’s largest vertically built-in module producer is predicated in Türkiye. The continent’s largest photo voltaic array, the 1.35 GW Kalyon Karapinar PV energy plant, can be discovered there. This didn’t occur by chance.
It’s a pivotal time for photo voltaic in Türkiye. Within the first two months of 2024, the nation added 1.1 GW of recent technology capability, equal to round half of its PV set up whole for 2023. And as pv journal found at SolarEX 2024, a three-day commerce honest in Istanbul in April 2024, the variety of home module meeting companies has ballooned. Totally different numbers have been mentioned on the exhibition ground however the common consensus was that there are not less than 80, and certain greater than 90, Turkish module assemblers.
What’s behind the increase? Installations are trending in the fitting course however not at a tempo that may help such a swell in manufacturing capability. Supportive industrial coverage and punitive import boundaries supply a proof, not less than partially.
Doubling down
Understanding the Turkish photo voltaic market means attending to grips with the raft of protectionist measures now in place. Whereas photo voltaic stakeholders within the European Union proceed to debate the fitting response to ultra-low pricing of Chinese language modules, Türkiye has spent the final seven years ratcheting up its antidumping measures and piling on friction on the border.
In 2017, the federal government unveiled a listing of 16 China-based PV producers whose imported modules could be subjected to $20/m2 antidumping charges. These have been the fortunate ones, as different Chinese language companies have been hit with a $25 price from the identical measure. That was adopted by a brand new “surveillance obligation” that was utilized to module imports in 2020 – an oblique tax designed to drive up value-added tax (VAT) for importers. And in March 2024, antidumping measures have been prolonged to incorporate imports from extra competitively priced markets. A tariff of $25/m2 is now in place for photo voltaic modules imported from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Croatia, and Jordan.
If that wasn’t sufficient to discourage module imports, adjustments to VAT guidelines, in November 2023, have had a big impression on the cost-per-Watt of overseas photovoltaics. Importers can now not deduct the VAT that’s generated by means of commerce coverage measures. The impact could be seen in a pattern calculation offered by analyst PwC, which imagined a 530 MW module with a unit worth of $0.11/W. It produces eye-watering outcomes. Earlier than Nov. 24, 2023, which introduced the rule change, the full price for that hypothetical module, after accounting for commerce coverage measures, was $110.30, equal to $0.21/W. Below the brand new VAT regime, the identical mannequin would come to $269, or $0.51/W.
Authorities motion isn’t restricted to conserving overseas modules out. There are various incentives in place geared toward supporting home module manufacturing. In summer season 2023, a brand new 10-year feed-in tariff (FIT) of TRY 1.06 ($0.03)/kWh was launched for PV techniques put in between July 1, 2021, and Dec. 31, 2030. Initiatives that use PV modules made in Türkiye get much more help, benefiting from an additional five-year FIT of TRY 0.288/kWh.
A government-backed Inexperienced Vitality Mortgage program additionally eases entry to finance whereas the nation’s longstanding apply of designating “organized industrial zones” – areas that profit from particular tax therapy – helps to facilitate funding in every kind of home manufacturing.
Worldwide ambition
These are the market circumstances, however the place will they lead? Consolidation, almost certainly. Module manufacturing in Türkiye is usually a module meeting enterprise with a robust core of well-established operators, plus a protracted tail of recent entrants. Solely eight main corporations have annual manufacturing capability of greater than 1 GW, in accordance with PwC evaluation, and as of February 2024, just one Turkish producer produced photo voltaic ingots.
Kalyon PV is on the prime of an ever-growing pile. It’s additionally the one home producer producing its personal ingots, wafers, and cells. The present annual manufacturing capability at Kalyon is 2 GW for modules and photo voltaic cells. That determine is prone to develop, in accordance with Kalyon, as the corporate reckons module manufacturing capability might go as excessive as 10 GW within the subsequent 10 years.
Between new installations in Türkiye and the corporate’s exercise abroad, there might be sufficient demand to accommodate that progress, mentioned an organization spokesperson at SolarEX.
“We consider the Turkish market’s capability will enlarge consistent with our enlargement,” they mentioned. “We consider, within the subsequent 10 years Turkish buyers [will] have the monetary capability, and we consider the market has sufficient capability. Our principal market might be in the USA, I consider. The rationale why we attempt to promote there may be our product is admittedly [high] high quality and we’re certainly one of two corporations in Türkiye to get UL [Underwriters Laboratories] certification, permitting the merchandise to be offered within the US market.”
For giant-scale Turkish producers corresponding to Kalyon PV, the USA is the land of alternative. The Uyghur Pressured Labor Prevention Act retains competitors from China at bay, whereas the incentives supporting inexperienced funding included within the US Inflation Discount Act (IRA) current tantalizing alternatives.
“Our home product charge is 90%,” mentioned the spokesperson. “We’ve a clear provide chain and we will show it to [United States] buyers, that’s why they’re actually all for our merchandise.”
Kalyon is just not the one Turkish firm with American ambitions. In April 2024, Elin Vitality began producing photo voltaic modules at a website in Texas. The corporate has already secured agreements with US distributors and plans to extend manufacturing capability to 2 GW inside 18 months. It adopted an analogous announcement from Energate Photo voltaic in October 2023. Energate plans to ramp up module manufacturing in the USA and has additionally set a 2 GW goal. The corporate mentioned its plan was to provide 500 MW of gallium-doped monocrystalline passivated emitter, rear contact silicon panels and tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) panels in 2023, earlier than increasing to 1 GW in 2024.
It’s clear that the USA has potential for Turkish module producers. Competing within the European Union, nevertheless, stays difficult. There isn’t any technique to match Chinese language modules on worth.
Chinese language affect
The large producers are additionally onerous to beat in relation to expertise. This was evident from the amount of apparatus and uncooked materials suppliers who made the journey from China to SolarEX 2024. One Chinese language photo voltaic cell provider instructed pv journal the corporate determined to attend the present on the final minute, motivated by accelerating demand from module assemblers.
For gear suppliers, Türkiye provides a possible lifeline in a difficult international market. Demand has dwindled because of the ongoing module oversupply scenario in Europe. As producers have put capability growth plans on maintain, Chinese language corporations providing turnkey module meeting traces have been turning to Türkiye.
And regardless of the commerce boundaries, Chinese language producers are discovering their manner into the market by investing in home manufacturing. Astronergy – a part of the Chinese language CHINT Group conglomerate – lately introduced a brand new manufacturing unit in Adana, Türkiye. An organization spokesperson confirmed to pv journal that manufacturing is predicted to start on the website within the third quarter of 2024, with an official inauguration of the manufacturing unit scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2024. The manufacturing facility is situated throughout the Haci Sabanci organized industrial zone and is predicted to make use of 150 individuals in its first part. The 22,000 m² website will produce its N5 and N7, negatively-doped, “n-type” TOPCon modules utilizing photo voltaic cells sourced from different Astronergy websites with cell manufacturing capability.
An Astronergy spokesperson mentioned Türkiye “is a spot with quite a lot of potential in photo voltaic vitality, subsequently, Astronergy’s top quality PV modules will begin manufacturing within the Turkish market. This would be the first direct funding [in the country from a] prime six, tier-1 PV module maker.”
What subsequent?
There’s nonetheless extra to return: extra capability and extra functionality. It will not be sufficient to help the amount of recent market entrants assembling modules however the stage is about for continued photo voltaic set up progress with vitality storage prone to play an rising position as effectively. Türkiye’s Nationwide Vitality Plan predicts that photo voltaic will account for 28% of whole put in technology capability in 2035 and vitality storage techniques will attain 7.5 GW of put in capability by that date. The plan assumes put in photo voltaic capability will enhance by 3 GW per yr to 2030, rising to 4 GW per yr from 2030 to 2035.
The nation’s prime module producers even have plans in movement to extend their functionality. In two or three years’ time, there could possibly be 4 Turkish producers producing photo voltaic cells, in accordance with Mehmet Ozenbas, director at Technique&, a part of the PwC community. Ozenbas instructed pv journal Sensible Photo voltaic Applied sciences is predicted to start home photo voltaic cell manufacturing in 2024. The corporate additionally plans to provide its personal wafers within the close to future. Elin Vitality model Sirius and Schmid Penkintas are pursuing home cell and wafer manufacturing ambitions too.
Onshoring these key levels within the photo voltaic module provide chain appears to be like like the following huge step for PV manufacturing in Türkiye. The variety of module meeting companies available in the market could have soared, however it is going to be these with their very own provide chains who might be finest positioned to make waves on the world stage.
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