The Week That Was: 2024-01-27 (January 27, 2024)
Dropped at You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Mission
Quote of the Week: “’The exception proves that the rule is fallacious.’ That’s the precept of science. If there may be an exception to any rule, and if it may be proved by remark, that rule is fallacious.” – Richard Feynman, The Which means of It All (1998)
Variety of the Week: 6,000 meters (3.7 mi)
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Mission (SEPP)
Scope: Matters to be mentioned embrace Roy Spencer’s new paper on the failure of world local weather fashions to precisely describe present temperatures. Howard Hayden suggests a significant downside with the IPCC might stem from its (or the UNFCCC’s) definitions for local weather change. Interviews with David Legates and Willie Quickly are offered. Main financial issues stemming from costly, unreliable electrical energy in Germany and the UK are briefly mentioned. A reversal in US vitality exports is offered.
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World Local weather Mannequin Failure: Roy Spencer ready a report for the Heritage Basis “World Warming: Observations vs. Local weather Fashions.” The Abstract states:
“Warming of the worldwide local weather system over the previous half-century has averaged 43 % lower than that produced by computerized local weather fashions used to advertise modifications in vitality coverage. In the USA throughout summer season, the noticed warming is far weaker than that produced by all 36 local weather fashions surveyed right here. Whereas the reason for this comparatively benign warming may theoretically be totally attributable to humanity’s manufacturing of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel burning, this declare can’t be demonstrated via science. A minimum of among the measured warming could possibly be pure. Opposite to media reviews and environmental organizations’ press releases, international warming presents no justification for carbon-based regulation.”
The Key Takeaways are:
- “The noticed charge of world warming over the previous 50 years has been weaker than that predicted by nearly all computerized local weather fashions.
- Local weather fashions that information vitality coverage don’t even preserve vitality, a vital situation for any bodily primarily based mannequin of the local weather system.
- Public coverage ought to be primarily based on local weather observations—that are reasonably unremarkable—reasonably than local weather fashions that exaggerate local weather impacts.”
Spencer’s introduction explains a significant downside with the worldwide local weather fashions utilized by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC) and relied on by the 14 US authorities entities that signed off the US Fifth Nationwide Local weather Evaluation (2023) together with the Nationwide Science Basis (NSF), NOAA, NASA, Division of Power (DOE), Division of Protection (DOD), and EPA. The introduction states [citations omitted]:
Common warming of the local weather system over the previous 5 a long time has been broadly attributed to greenhouse fuel emissions—primarily carbon dioxide (CO2)—from the burning of fossil fuels. This perception has led to requires tremendously decreasing humanity’s reliance on such fuels and a transition to ‘renewable’ vitality sources akin to wind energy and photo voltaic vitality.
For the needs of guiding public coverage and for adaptation to any local weather change that happens, it’s vital to know the claims of world warming science as promoted by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC). In relation to will increase in international common temperature because the Seventies, three questions are pertinent:
- Is latest warming of the local weather system materially attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse fuel emissions, as is normally claimed?
- Is the speed of noticed warming near what laptop local weather fashions—used to information public coverage—present?
- Has the noticed charge of warming been ample to justify alarm and in depth regulation of CO2 emissions?
Whereas the local weather system has warmed considerably over the previous 5 a long time, the favored notion of a ‘local weather disaster’ and ensuing requires economically vital regulation of CO2 emissions will not be supported by science.
What Causes Temperature Change?
Earlier than addressing how a lot warming has been noticed, it’s helpful to clarify what causes the temperature of something—the local weather system, the human physique, a pot of water on the range, a automotive’s engine—to alter. The underlying ideas usually are not tough to understand and are skilled by folks each day.
Temperature Change Is Attributable to an Imbalance Between Power Achieve and Power Loss. One might image an uncovered pot of water on a range being heated over a really low flame. The water will heat reasonably quickly when the range is first turned on, then it would heat extra slowly as the nice and cozy pot loses vitality to its cooler environment. Sooner or later, the water will cease warming altogether as the new water loses vitality to its environment simply as quick because the flame places vitality into the pot. This state is named “vitality stability” and it corresponds to a steady, fixed temperature.
Or one might think about carrying a coat exterior within the winter. Individuals put on coats to scale back the speed of vitality loss by their our bodies. If folks didn’t put on coats, their our bodies would lose vitality quicker than they may generate warmth via metabolism, and folks would go into hypothermia. The coat helps to take care of vitality stability by decreasing the speed of vitality loss by folks’s our bodies.
As a ultimate instance, everybody has skilled how air temperature modifications on a sunny day. The air warms via the morning and early afternoon. However by late afternoon, one thing curious occurs: The temperature begins taking place, regardless that the solar continues to be shining. This cooling occurs as a result of the speed of vitality loss by the air turns into higher than the speed of vitality acquire from daylight because the solar sinks decrease within the sky.
In all of those examples, when vitality acquire equals vitality loss, there isn’t any temperature change. If there may be an imbalance between charges of vitality acquire and vitality loss, the temperature modifications.
Latest Warming of the Local weather System Corresponds to a Tiny Power Imbalance
The common charge of vitality acquire by the worldwide local weather system from daylight is variously estimated to be 235 to 245 Watts per sq. meter (W/m2), so, for functions of debate the idea is 240 W/m2. For international temperatures to stay roughly fixed over time, the speed of vitality loss by the system to outer house, which happens via infrared (IR) ‘warmth’ radiation, should even be roughly 240 W/m2.
However simply how properly do local weather researchers know these numbers, and what’s the proof that there’s a pure stability between them? The very best satellite tv for pc measurements from the Nationwide Aeronautics and Area Administration’s (NASA’s) Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Power System’s (CERES’s) devices are solely correct to a couple W/m2 (about 1 % of the common vitality flows. To estimate the extent of world vitality imbalance, researchers use long-term measurements of the gradual warming of the worldwide common oceans to estimate the vitality imbalance. From the noticed charges of warming of the deep ocean it’s easy to compute that the present vitality imbalance is simply about 0.6 W/m2, which is a tiny fraction of the approximate 240 W/m2 pure vitality flows. This imbalance is thus significantly smaller (by a couple of issue of 4) than the accuracy with which one can measure international common charges of vitality acquire and loss out and in of the local weather system utilizing satellites. [Boldface added]
That is vital as a result of it signifies that some portion of latest warming could possibly be pure. However since local weather researchers don’t perceive pure sources of local weather change, akin to those who brought on the Roman Heat Interval of about 2,000 years in the past, the Medieval Heat Interval of about 1,000 years in the past, and the Little Ice Age a number of centuries in the past, most local weather researchers merely assume {that a} related occasion will not be taking place at this time. [Boldface added]
As an alternative of admitting that pure processes could possibly be at work in inflicting local weather change, ‘vitality equilibrium’ is what’s assumed by the mainstream local weather analysis group for the pure state of local weather system unaffected by people. The members of this group assume that the speed of vitality enter into the local weather system from the solar is, on common, precisely equal to the speed of vitality loss to outer house from IR radiation when averaged globally and over a few years. The present, small roughly 0.6 W/m2 imbalance within the approximate 240 W/m2 vitality flows out and in of the local weather system is then totally blamed on the burning of fossil fuels. [Boldface added]
However this vitality stability assumption for the Earth is a press release of religion, not science. As talked about, a pure state of world vitality stability can’t be demonstrated. Even utilizing NASA’s greatest satellite tv for pc measurements of vitality flows via the local weather system. [Boldface added]
Local weather Fashions Assume Power Stability, however Have Problem Attaining It
The projections of local weather change within the information, and that kind the premise of presidency efforts to scale back greenhouse fuel emissions, come from computerized local weather fashions run by local weather analysis facilities in varied international locations.
These projections are much like climate forecast fashions however have extra enhancements that aren’t wanted in short-term climate forecasts. The fashions are adjusted to supply no long-term local weather change. In different phrases, the fashions assume that each one local weather change is unnatural, after which are used as ‘proof’ of human-caused local weather change when additional CO2 is added to them. In fact, that is round reasoning. There are additionally quite a few probably pure, or non-CO2-related, causes a local weather might change. [Boldface added]
The massive variety of local weather fashions produce international warming charges which range by a couple of issue of three between them (1.8°C to five.6°C) in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (2 x CO2). In 2023, Earth’s ambiance was about 50 % of the way in which to 2 x CO2. Amazingly, this factor-of-three vary of warming projections has not modified within the greater than 30 years of climate-model enhancements. This proves that climate-model forecasts usually are not, as is usually claimed, primarily based on confirmed physics. In the event that they had been, they’d all produce about the identical quantity of warming. [Boldface added]
As described above, temperature change is the results of vitality imbalance, and all local weather fashions have been tuned to supply vitality stability within the absence of human-produced CO2-equivalent emissions. With out such tuning changes (one may name them ‘fudge elements’ a few of that are advert hoc), nearly all fashions’ temperature would slowly drift over time—that’s, grow to be progressively hotter or cooler. Regardless of this tuning, many fashions have been discovered to nonetheless have issues conserving vitality. Power conservation (in all probability essentially the most elementary regulation in science, the First Regulation of Thermodynamics) ought to be a vital requirement of any mannequin used for vitality coverage selections. The necessity for mannequin tuning is unavoidable as a result of the elemental bodily processes within the local weather system (particularly cloud traits) usually are not identified precisely sufficient to construct a steady mannequin from bodily first rules alone. So, empirical changes should be made to these modeled processes in order that the mannequin is not going to spuriously heat or cool over centuries of mannequin run time. But, even at this, many fashions fail. [Boldface added]
The idea that the local weather system is in a pure state of vitality stability additionally signifies that the fashions don’t embrace any sources of long-term pure local weather change. Once more, this assumption is reasonably unavoidable since fashions can solely embrace processes that local weather researchers perceive and might quantify, and that data doesn’t presently exist for pure sources of long-term local weather change. Whereas scientists usually assume that long-term modifications should come from some exterior forcing agent (akin to growing CO2 or a change in photo voltaic exercise), the Earth’s local weather is thought to be a ‘nonlinear dynamical system,’ exhibiting chaotic fluctuations, such that long-term modifications are doable with none exterior forcing. For instance, small-scale turbulence within the oceans has been proven to be able to producing substantial chaotic modifications in ocean warmth content material, a outcome that invariably is blamed on humanity’s greenhouse fuel emissions.
Because of the assumptions inherent in local weather fashions, any claims they ‘show’ that warming is because of human exercise are clearly disputable. There are not any ‘fingerprints’ of human-caused warming; for instance, warming brought on by any course of might be extra speedy over land than over oceans.[Boldface added]
Whereas it’s true that, primarily based on idea, growing CO2 ranges within the ambiance ought to trigger some warming, absent another mitigating impact from the presence of that CO2, simply how a lot warming stays unsure. It’s totally doable that a lot of the warming that has been noticed (though over-predicted by the pc fashions) might certainly be attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse fuel emissions. In any case, greenhouse gasses, akin to water vapor and CO2, take in and emit IR radiation, which is all that’s wanted for there to be an atmospheric greenhouse impact (largely attributable to water vapor) which retains the Earth habitably heat and helps to maintain life. However simply how a lot warming will outcome from humanity’s function in all this stays significantly extra unsure than is mostly realized.
The Direct Warming from a Doubling of CO2 Is Only one.2°C.
How a lot warming does international warming idea say ought to happen from human greenhouse fuel emissions? The general public has been led to imagine that fashions are pretty correct on this regard, however the knowledge present completely different outcomes. World warming idea signifies {that a} doubling of atmospheric CO2 would trigger only one.2°C of direct warming if there are not any different modifications within the local weather system than temperature. It’s these different, oblique modifications (referred to as feedbacks) constructed into these fashions that tremendously amplify the reasonably benign 1.2°C of warming in nearly all local weather fashions. These feedbacks result in the big selection of present mannequin projections of 1.8°C to five.6°C of warming in response to 2 x CO2. Present claims of a local weather disaster are invariably the results of reliance on the fashions producing essentially the most warming, not on precise observations of the local weather system which reveal unremarkable modifications over the previous century or extra.” [Boldface added]
Spencer then presents bodily proof (not mannequin proof) substantiating his assertions that the worldwide local weather fashions utilized by the IPCC and relied upon within the US NCA overstate the warming of the globe. He offers a graph exhibiting:
“…the common of 5 completely different observation-based datasets (blue) are in comparison with the common of 36 local weather fashions participating within the sixth IPCC Local weather Mannequin Intercomparison Mission (CMIP6). The fashions have produced, on common, 43 % quicker warming than has been noticed from 1979 to 2022. That is the interval of essentially the most speedy improve in international temperatures and anthropogenic greenhouse fuel emissions, and likewise corresponds to the interval for which satellite tv for pc observations exist. This discrepancy between fashions and observations is seldom talked about regardless of that indisputable fact that it’s, roughly talking, the common of the fashions (and even essentially the most excessive fashions) that’s used to advertise coverage modifications within the U.S. and overseas.” [Boldface added]
In line with the US World Change Analysis Program present web site:
“Along with an annual report back to Congress and a Strategic Plan, the GCRA [Global Change Research Act] mandates that USGCRP put together and undergo the President and the Congress a quadrennial evaluation, known as the Nationwide Local weather Evaluation (NCA), which:
- Combine[s], consider[s], and interpret[s] the findings of the Program and focus on[es] the scientific uncertainties related to such findings.
- Analyze[s] the results of world change on the pure setting, agriculture, vitality manufacturing and use, land and water assets, transportation, human well being and welfare, human social techniques, and organic range.
- Analyze[s] present developments in international change, each human-induced and pure, and venture[s] main developments for the next 25 to 100 years.”
In his report Spencer then demolishes the Fifth Nationwide Local weather Evaluation (2023) which was used to say a local weather emergency or disaster. He reveals that local weather fashions vastly overstate warming. He presents a graph of the noticed 12-state U.S. Corn Belt Summer time temperature development for 1973-2022. The development is significantly decrease than that produced by all 36 local weather fashions used to advertise modifications in U.S. vitality coverage. Lots of the fashions used within the Fifth NCA produce a warming that’s three to 5 occasions of that which is noticed. Spencer writes that:
“The truth that international meals manufacturing has elevated quicker than inhabitants development prior to now 60 years means that any damaging impacts attributable to local weather change have been small. Actually, ‘international greening’ has been documented to be occurring in response to extra atmospheric CO2, which boosts each pure plant development and agricultural productiveness, resulting in vital agricultural advantages.
These discrepancies between fashions and observations are by no means talked about when local weather researchers promote local weather fashions for vitality coverage decision-making. As an alternative, they exploit exaggerated mannequin forecasts of local weather change to concoct exaggerated claims of a local weather disaster.”
Spencer then presents a graph exhibiting that the 38 international local weather fashions tremendously overstate the warming of the ambiance, the place the greenhouse impact happens. He and John Christy replace earlier publications to 2022 evaluating local weather mannequin efficiency with 3 Radiosonde Datasets, 3 Reanalysis Datasets and three Satellite tv for pc Datasets. The 9 completely different knowledge units utilizing completely different devices carefully correspond with each other, and considerably diverge from the local weather fashions. [Note that both the model count and years covered change.] Spencer concludes that:
“Local weather fashions produce an excessive amount of warming when in comparison with observations over the previous fifty years or so, which is the interval of most speedy warming and will increase in carbon dioxide within the ambiance. The discrepancy ranges from over 40 % for international floor air temperature, about 50 % for international decrease atmospheric temperatures, and even an element of two to a few for the USA within the summertime. This discrepancy is rarely talked about when those self same fashions are used as the premise for coverage selections. [Boldface added]
Additionally not talked about when discussing local weather fashions is their reliance on the idea that there are not any pure sources of long-term local weather change. The fashions should be ‘tuned’ to supply no local weather change, after which a human affect is added within the type of a really small, roughly 1 % change within the international vitality stability. Whereas the ensuing mannequin warming is claimed to show that people are accountable, clearly that is round reasoning. It doesn’t essentially imply that the declare is fallacious—solely that it’s primarily based on religion in assumptions concerning the pure local weather system that can’t be proven to be true from observations.
Lastly, doable chaotic inner variations will all the time result in uncertainty in each international warming projections and rationalization of previous modifications. Given these uncertainties, policymakers ought to proceed cautiously and never enable themselves to be influenced by exaggerated claims primarily based on demonstrably defective local weather fashions.”
See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy and https://www.globalchange.gov/our-work/national-climate-assessment for the US NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT.
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What Went Incorrect? Spencer brings out that the disparity between international local weather mannequin outcomes and bodily proof (observations) is giant and growing. There appears to be no effort on the a part of the UN IPCC to appropriate these deceptive fashions. The query is why?
AMO physicist Howard Hayden might have a solution which may be unlucky. In “The Power Advocate” he has an essay giving distinct definitions of local weather change utilized by the UN Framework Conference on Local weather Change (UNFCCC) and the IPCC. The essay is now posted on the SEPP web site. Hayden writes [citation omitted]:
“The dinosaurs lived when the common international temperature was 6ºC to 10ºC hotter than it’s now, so that you may assume that there was some local weather change since that point. In line with the UN Framework Conference on Local weather Change (UNFCCC), you’ll be fallacious. UNICEF explains why you’re fallacious by presenting the information that children don’t know what the definition of local weather change is:
Most kids and younger folks say they’ve heard of local weather change however solely half perceive what it’s, based on a brand new UNICEF-Gallup ballot, as world leaders collect at this 12 months’s COP28.
The worldwide ballot discovered that on common, 85 per cent of younger folks aged 15-24 surveyed in 55 international locations mentioned they’ve heard of local weather change, but simply 50 per cent of these selected the proper definition as per the United Nations Framework Conference on Local weather Change (UNFCCC) when requested to pick out between ‘seasonal modifications in climate that happen yearly’ and ‘extra excessive climate occasions and an increase in common world temperatures ensuing from human exercise’. [Boldface in original.]
They could properly have requested, ‘Would you reasonably stroll or take your lunch?’
You see, the UNFCCC has a really express definition of local weather change that mechanically implicates people’.
‘Local weather change’ means a change of local weather which is attributed straight or not directly to human exercise that alters the composition of the worldwide ambiance and which is along with pure local weather variability noticed over comparable time durations. [Emphasis added.]
To guarantee that all people understands that people are accountable for local weather change, the UNFCCC’s ‘Science’ Introduction says:
The science on local weather change is obvious. There isn’t any query that these irregular modifications outcome from international warming attributable to an elevated greenhouse impact brought on by the huge quantities of greenhouse gases added to the ambiance by human actions. [Emphasis added.]
All that stuff that occurred within the half-billion years of the Phanerozoic Period earlier than people ruined the planet, as illustrated in Determine 3, is named local weather variability by the UNFCCC; there was no local weather change till very just lately.” [Boldface in this paragraph is italics in original]
Determine 3, within the publish, is a graph of temperature change for the previous 500 million years primarily based on the geological report. For the previous 70 million years the graph is much like the one offered by Tom Gallagher with the earth step by step cooling over the previous 50 million years apart from sharp, temporary will increase in temperatures throughout interglacial durations over the previous 3 million years in present icehouse Earth.
It is rather clear that the IPCC and the UN have no real interest in pure local weather change. It will be very tough to carry UN officers accountable for his or her irresponsibility. Nevertheless, the authors of the US NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT have the specific duty to take pure local weather change into consideration. They and the 14 authorities entities that signed off on the Fifth Nationwide Local weather Evaluation ought to be held accountable for his or her failure to deal with pure local weather change. See hyperlink underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.
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Different Interviews: Along with Roy Spencer, the Heritage Basis interviewed SEPP administrators David Legates and Willie Quickly of their local weather sequence. David Legates described what we find out about local weather historical past and the similarities in local weather change patterns at this time and people seen prior to now. Willie Quickly expresses his frustration with the IPCC and its failure to acknowledge variations within the Solar, which is the dominant driver of local weather change on this photo voltaic system. See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.
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Actual Harm: Each the UK and Germany are experiencing actual financial injury trigger by accepting the false claims of the IPCC and implementing various types of electrical energy era, particularly wind and photo voltaic.
Additional, as soon as revered establishments within the UK are being uncovered for his or her deceptive assurances that wind energy can present dependable, reasonably priced electrical energy. These establishments didn’t contemplate sufficient storage necessities throughout extended modifications in wind patterns which have been identified for many years akin to shifts within the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). See hyperlinks underneath Altering Climate, Reducing Requirements, Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Propaganda, and Questioning European Inexperienced.
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Incomplete Knowledge: Geophysical Analysis Letters printed a research on greenhouse fuel forcing that had two revealing findings. The research relies on “steady, steady, international, hyperspectral infrared satellite tv for pc measurements (2003–2021)” utilizing Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA’s Aqua Satellite tv for pc. One vital discovering not emphasised is that it didn’t discover a vital warming within the frequencies one would count on from a rise in water vapor, which has been used to amplify CO2 warming in all international local weather fashions. As an alternative, it discovered a rise in outgoing lengthy wave radiation (OLR) within the frequencies blocked by water vapor.
The second discovering is that the analysis helps the IPCC fashions. It doesn’t. IPCC fashions depend on a major improve in water vapor. Additional, the research reveals a lower in OLR from methane and nitrous oxide, implying they’ve a major impression on temperatures. Nevertheless, the detailed work of van Wijngaarden and Happer reveals that water vapor, the dominant greenhouse fuel, blocks the OLR in frequency ranges overlapping methane and nitrous oxide. Thus, the researchers might have confused what they noticed. See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy – Radiation Switch.
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Superb: The US shale oil and fuel revolution resulted in Russia and OPEC nations attempting to drive out impartial competitors from US oil fields. They failed. Additional, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, US impartial fuel producers dramatically expanded manufacturing. New export services have opened, making the US the world’s largest pure fuel producer, barely above Russia. Now, citing a false local weather emergency, the Biden administration introduced a short lived ban (pause) on new permits to export pure fuel.
Though an awesome deal might be written subsequently, an editorial within the Wall Road Journal expressed the problem properly. It started with:
“People acquired a preview of a second Biden time period on Friday when the President halted permits for brand new liquefied pure fuel (LNG) export tasks. Local weather politics has grow to be the tail wagging this Administration’s financial, nationwide safety and overseas coverage. President Biden isn’t operating for re-election. Local weather lobbyist Invoice McKibben and his TikTok military are.
‘This pause on new LNG approvals sees the local weather disaster for what it’s: the existential risk of our time,’ Mr. Biden mentioned. ‘We are going to heed the calls of younger folks and frontline communities who’re utilizing their voices to demand motion from these with the ability to behave.’ Didn’t he marketing campaign in 2020 by promising to be the grownup within the room?
Now he’s letting TikTokers dictate U.S. coverage. Press reviews say Biden adviser John Podesta pushed for the ‘pause’—which tees up an outright ban—after TikTokers and Mr. McKibben made stopping LNG exports a trigger celebre. Mr. Biden’s advisers on the White Home even met with a TikTok local weather ‘influencer.’ The Administration hopes its local weather gesture will increase the President’s flagging political help amongst younger folks.
Who cares concerning the real-world impression, or the sign to allies and adversaries that the U.S. isn’t a dependable accomplice? Europe and Asia ought to plan to import their fuel from Qatar, Russia and even Iran. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin now know they will exploit the Administration’s local weather obsession to undermine U.S. pursuits.
In the course of the pause, the Power Division will conduct an environmental and financial evaluation of LNG exports. ‘As we speak, we’ve got an evolving understanding of the market want for LNG, the long-term provide of LNG, and the perilous impacts of methane on our planet’ and ‘air pollution from new export services,’ the White Home assertion says.
Mr. Biden’s views positive have developed. As Vice President, he boasted about the advantages of U.S. LNG exports. ‘America is now a internet [gas] exporter,’ he proclaimed on the 2016 CAF convention. ‘There are even higher alternatives to provide the vitality wants of our companions in Latin America and around the globe.’
He was proper. World demand for pure fuel is predicted to extend 46% by 2050 as international locations industrialize and shift from coal. Most growing Asian economies nonetheless depend on coal for energy, together with India (71%), Indonesia (59%), Vietnam (57%) and the Philippines (55%). World coal exports and energy era final 12 months hit a report.
China was the largest coal importer, adopted by India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Demand for LNG has outstripped provide particularly as Europe tries to wean itself from Russian fuel. A Bangladesh vitality official complained final 12 months that Asian international locations couldn’t purchase fuel due to skyrocketing costs. As an alternative, they burned coal. How will this be good for the local weather?”
The article then asserts that Russia, Iran and Qatar will profit, and that Germany accounted for a 3rd or extra of the contracted capability of a big Gulf Coast LNG port. See Article # 1 and hyperlink underneath Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Youngsters for Propaganda.
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Variety of the Week: 6,000 meters (3.7 mi). Final week’s TWTW introduced up the views of three geologists on the Geothermal Impacts on Local weather. They expressed that geothermal exercise might have intensified the Kuroshio Present and the Kuroshio Extension within the Pacific and the Gulf Stream through the Canary Present within the Atlantic. This week Jim Steele presents glorious maps of ocean currents exhibiting this intensification. He attributes it to photo voltaic heating.
The Argo program started in 1998 an thought for a worldwide array of autonomous floats to acquire temperature and salinity measurements of the higher 2,000 meters (1.2 miles) of the worldwide ocean. This program is being prolonged by Deep Argo, which goals to pattern temperature and salinity over the total ocean depth as much as 6,000 meters (3.7 mi). The problem ought to be solved when the info is available in. See hyperlinks underneath Commentary: Is the Solar Rising? and Measurement Points – Power Circulate.
Commentary: Is the Solar Rising?
Hurricane Frequency and Sunspots
By Andy Might, WUWT, Jan 25, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Does hurricane frequency vary inversely with sunspot activity?]
Peer-Reviewed Science On Twitter
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Jan 25, 2024
https://realclimatescience.com/2024/01/peer-reviewed-science-on-twitter/#gsc.tab=0
See hyperlink instantly above.
NOAA’s Graph Offers Greatest Proof That Photo voltaic Heating Is Warming the Oceans, Not CO2
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Jan 27, 2024
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Local weather Science Gatekeeping
New Proof Exhibits Michael Mann In search of to Manipulate Peer Evaluate
By Roger Pielke Jr. The Sincere Dealer, Jan 22, 2024
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/climate-science-gatekeeping
Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013
Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/paperwork/CCR/CCR-II/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019
http://retailer.heartland.org/store/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Obtain with no cost:
Why Scientists Disagree About World Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Obtain with no cost:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
World Sea-Degree Rise: An Analysis of the Knowledge
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Transient, Might 20, 2019
Difficult the Orthodoxy – Radiation Switch
The Position of Greenhouse Gases in Power Switch within the Earth’s Ambiance
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Greenhouse Gasoline Forcing and Local weather Suggestions Signatures Recognized in Hyperspectral Infrared Satellite tv for pc Observations
By Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, et al. Geophysical Analysis Letters, Dec 13, 2024 [H/t Jeff Reynolds]
New Journal of Local weather Examine Reduces Doubled CO2 Local weather Sensitivity By 40%, To 0.72°C
By Kenneth Richard, No Tips Zone, Jan 22, 2024
Hyperlink to paper: The World Patterns of Instantaneous CO2 Forcing on the Prime of the Ambiance and the Floor
By Yan-Ting Chen, et al, Journal of Local weather, Sep 15, 2023
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/18/JCLI-D-22-0708.1.xml
Difficult the Orthodoxy
World Warming: Observations vs. Local weather Fashions
By Roy Spencer, The Heritage Basis, Jan 24, 2024
https://www.heritage.org/setting/report/global-warming-observations-vs-climate-mo
Hyperlink to full report: https://www.heritage.org/setting/report/global-warming-observations-vs-climate-models
New Article on Local weather Fashions vs. Observations
By Roy Spencer, His Weblog, Jan 25, 204
[SEPP Comment: The data covered are 1973 to 2022. If 2023 is included, the change would be slight. Using near-surface air temperatures, the warmth of 2023 was not significantly greater than 2016.]
Local weather Collection Half 1: Historical past of Local weather Change
Audio: With David Legates By the Heritage Basis, Jan 3, 2024
https://reveals.acast.com/thedailysignal/episodes/tds010324int
Local weather Collection Half 2: Historical past of Local weather Change
Audio: With Willie Quickly By the Heritage Basis, Jan 4, 2024
Local weather Collection Half 3: Historical past of Local weather Change
Audio: With Roy Spencer By the Heritage Basis, Jan 5, 2024
The Thumb on the Scale
By Howard Hayden, The Power Advocate, January 2024
http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/Thepercent20Thumbpercent20onpercent20thepercent20Scale.docx
Flying Falsehoods and the Worth of Numbers
By Ivor Williams, WUWT, Jan 20, 2024
World Tropical Cyclones
Knowledge and figures that you simply gained’t discover on the local weather beat
By Roger Pielke Jr., The Sincere Dealer, Jan 24, 2024
World Historic Hurricane & Cyclone Statistics Set up that 2023 Skilled a Very “Regular Yr.”
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Jan 21, 2024
Hyperlink to: Annual 2023 World Local weather Report
By Employees, Nationwide Facilities for Environmental Data, retrieved Jan 25, 2024
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/entry/monitoring/monthly-report/international/202313#:~:textual content=Thepercent20yearpercent202023percent20waspercent20the,decadepercent20(2014percentE2percent80percent932023)
[SEPP Comment: Hamlin takes apart the absurd claims in the NOAA report.]
New Examine Concludes ‘CO2 Can Have No Measurable Impact On Ocean Temperatures’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tips Zone, Jan 25, 2024
Hyperlink to paper: Time Dependent Local weather Power Switch: The Forgotten Legacy of Joseph Fourier
By Roy Clark, Science of Local weather Change, Dec 2, 2024
From the summary: “Diurnal and seasonal section shifts happen in each the ocean and land temperature information. These section shifts present vital extra details about the time dependent vitality switch processes that decide the floor temperature. Sadly, beginning with the work of Pouillet in 1836, this time dependence was uncared for and changed by an equilibrium common local weather …This strategy created CO2 induced international warming as a mathematical artifact within the simplistic equilibrium air column mannequin utilized by Arrhenius in 1896. Bodily actuality was deserted in favor of mathematical simplicity.” [Boldface added]
Nice Information! The Local weather Is A lot Higher Than Predicted. Now We Can Calm Down!
By William M. Briggs, His Weblog, Jan 25, 2024
https://wmbriggs.substack.com/p/great-news-the-climate-is-much-better?utm_campaign=email-post&r=ch0af&utm_source=substack&utm_me
[SEPP Comment: Briggs reviews Spencer’s latest paper.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
New Local weather Projections: NYC Will Preserve Getting Hotter and Wetter
Sea ranges may rise by greater than a foot within the 2030s, when town can be anticipated to be as much as 10% rainier and as a lot as 4.7 levels hotter. [Boldface added]
By Samantha Maldonald, The Metropolis, NYC, Jan 22, 2024
Hyperlink to 2021 report: State of Local weather Information, 2021
By Adam Parris, et al., Metropolis of New York, Mayor’s Workplace of Local weather & Environmental Justice, 2021
“The estimates are a part of a forthcoming paper from the NPCC Local weather Science Working Group … Versus a plan or a research, this report – the State of Local weather Information 2021 – is a residing local weather analysis agenda. Constructing public participation in future variations of this agenda will assist MOR dealer innovation to deal with the local weather disaster (Determine 5). A publicly pushed local weather analysis agenda is not only what local weather analysis NYC wants; it’s the local weather analysis that NYC deserves.” [Boldface added]
Authorities Division Head: “Is local weather change too exhausting for democracy?”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 22, 2023
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Local weather pushed “Noble Trigger Corruption” goes manner again
By Ed Hoskins, His Lavatory, Accessed Jan 24, 2024
How the Lefts World Warming Ideology Wrecked Science – and Easy methods to Cease it (Half 2)
By Jeff Reynolds, Restoration Information, Jan 22, 2024
https://www.restorationofamerica.com/restoration-news/environmentalism/how-the-lefts-global-warming-ideology-wrecked-science-and-how-to-stop-it-pt-2/
Browsing The Sixth Wave
By Willis Eschenbach, Jan 23, 2024
Hyperlink to earlier paper: Historic chicken and terrestrial mammal extinction charges and causes
By Craig Loehle, Willis Eschenbach, Variety and Distributions, Oct 13, 2011
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00856.x
Unpacking Local weather Lies
By I & I Editorial Board, Jan 23, 2024
Break up the Worldwide Power Company Into Two To Keep away from Shocks
By Mark Mills, Actual Clear Politics, Jan 20, 2024
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/01/20/split_the_international_energy_agency_into_two_to_avoid_shocks_150357.html
So about that polar vortex
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2024/01/24/so-about-that-polar-vort
Power and Environmental Evaluate: January 22, 2024
By John Droz, Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Jan 22, 2024
In search of a Widespread Floor
The Quantity Of Named Storms Ought to Not Be Used As Local weather Index–Met Workplace
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 26, 2024
[SEPP Comment: From 2022 Met Office report: “’…because the criteria for naming storms have changed since the scheme was first introduced in autumn 2015.’”
Models v. Observations
A Test of Skill for Climate Models
By Richard Willoughby, WUWT, Jan 22, 2024
“The predictive capability of climate models at regional level is far worse than forecasting that any month of next year will be the same as the corresponding month this year. In fact the measured temperature at any location for any month forty years ago is a better predictor at regional temperature now than any climate model.
The common difference for all models relative to measured temperature, with the SH running hot and the NH running cold, indicates a systemic error in understanding the natural driver of climate change. The models are incapable of producing any regional cooling trend so the observed regional cooling trends in the SH invalidate the models.”
Models Wrong Again: “Hotter Weather Not Diminishing Runoff, River Discharge”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 21, 2024
Link to paper: Synergy between satellite observations of soil moisture and water storage anomalies for runoff estimation
By Stefania Camici, et al., Geoscientific Model Development, Sep 15, 2023
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/6935/2022/
“’Results are somewhat in contrast to climate projections’.”
#ECS in the real world: Lewis and Curry 2018
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
“’The implications of our results are that high best estimates of [ECS] derived from a majority of CMIP5 local weather fashions are inconsistent with noticed warming in the course of the historic interval (confidence stage 95%).’”
Measurement Points — Floor
Anti UHI Changes
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Jan 25, 204
https://realclimatescience.com/2024/01/anti-uhi-adjustments/#gsc.tab=0
Brizlee Wooden Opened In 2021
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 23, 2024
“No surprise we had not heard of 99 mph winds in Northumberland earlier than!”
Storm Isha–Don’t Be Fooled By 99 MPH Claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 23, 2024
“That 99 mph comes from Brizlee Wooden:
In actuality nonetheless, Brizlee will not be a wooden in any respect, it’s an RAF radar station on prime of a 250m hilltop above Alnwick Moor.”
See hyperlink instantly above.
Measurement Points – Power Circulate
Argo Program
An Array of Profiling Floats Observing the Ocean in Actual-Time
By Employees, Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory, Accessed Jan 25, 2024
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/argo/
Altering Climate
Water Assets Seems to be Good Over the Western U.S.
By Cliff Mass, Climate Weblog, Jan 26, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/water-resources-looks-good-over-western.html
[SEPP Comment: The “permanent western drought” was not so permanent?]
CCC Wind Energy Plans Ignore The NAO
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 26, 2024
“What [climate pioneer H.H.] Lamb information is carefully associated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This measures the distinction in stress between Icelandic lows and Azores highs. When the distinction is larger than regular, it’s referred to as a optimistic NAO.”
“The NOAO in winter has been largely in optimistic section since 1980, however the Sixties and 70s had been dominated by damaging NAOs. This clearly coincides with Lamb’s charts:
Detrimental NAOs in winter are likely to result in chilly climate as properly, so we’ve got a double whammy here- much less wind and higher demand. Add in a summer season like 1975 and 1976, and we might be in large bother.”
NEW! 2023 Knowledge: Pacific Storm Exercise Has Calmed Significantly Over Previous 7 Many years!
By P Gosselin, No Tips Zone, Jan 26, 20244
Low Carbon Floods In 1951
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 24, 2024
“However the enormity of the devastation from the Yangtze floods in 1951 [1931] is tough to grasp – a million misplaced their properties, 100,000 misplaced their lives.”
Hurricane Evaluate For 2023
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 25, 2024
“I’ve used the time period ‘hurricane’ all through, though they can be termed ‘Tropical Cyclone’.
In some basins, they’re additionally known as typhoons and cyclones.”
Proof World Warming will Enhance Rainfall in Australia?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 26, 2024
El Nino is Dying and the Northwest Will Get Drenched
By Cliff Mass, Climate Weblog, Jan 24, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/el-nino-is-dying-and-nw-will-get.html
100 and one years of Netherlands windstorms
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
From the CO2Science Archive:
File Breaking 1931
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Jan 25, 2024
https://realclimatescience.com/2024/01/record-breaking-1931/#gsc.tab=0
January 1951–Snow, Heavy Rain, Storms & Floods
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 21, 2024
1951 – Britain’s Yr of Flooding
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 21, 2024
It Was Simply Winter Climate In 1950!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 20, 2024
“So January 1950 had all the pieces! Temperatures as excessive as 61F and a low as 7F, rain, gales and loads of snow.”
Altering Seas
Maine Sea Degree Panic
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Jan 22, 2023
“And sadly, the hype runs deep within the research of the ocean stage. For instance, in my publish Munging The Sea Degree Knowledge, I demonstrated that the claims of contemporary acceleration in sea stage rise come totally from a completely invalid splicing of two units of satellite-measured sea ranges.”
Altering Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
How Bogus Arctic Warming Attribution Enabled the Local weather Disaster Rip-off
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Jan 21, 2024
“Thus, claims by alarmists attributing rising CO2 to any lack of Arctic sea ice and so-called ‘Arctic amplification’ will not be supported by the proof.”
Arctic Grows a Month of Ice in 3 Weeks January 2024
By Ron Clutz, Science Issues, Jan 23, 2024
The top of glacier melting as we all know it
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
Hyperlink to paper: Native cooling and drying induced by Himalayan glaciers underneath international warming
By Franco Salerno, et al, Nature Geoscience, Dec 4, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01331
“Chances are you’ll recall the IPCC’s fiasco over their exaggerated claims about Himalayan glaciers disappearing by 2035 attributable to international warming. It was such a foul-up that they needed to launch one among their uncommon Corrections (uncommon not as a result of they’re not often wanted however as a result of they will so not often be shamed into issuing one.) In different winter information from the wacky world of local weather change, a brand new paper in Nature explains that Himalayan glaciers are shrinking not attributable to warming of the ice cap however to cooling. However by no means worry, that’s additionally attributable to attributable to warming. It will be.”
Agriculture Points & Worry of Famine
Main British Doctor Says Going NetZero Would In all probability Lead To six Billion Ravenous
By P Gosselin, No Tips Zone, Jan 24, 2024
Video
Reducing Requirements
4 main nationwide establishments have made misguided estimates of the price of Internet Zero
Press Launch, Internet Zero Watch, Jan 24, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/errors-in-net-zero-costs
Revelation That U.Okay. Local weather Goal is Based mostly on One Windy Yr’s Knowledge Threatens to Unravel Internet Zero Credibility
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 24, 2024
otalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/01/24/revelation-that-u-k-climate-target-is-based-on-one-windy-years-data-threatens-to-unravel-net-zero-credibility/
Local weather chiefs admitted internet zero plan primarily based on inadequate knowledge, main physicist says
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 20, 2024
“’ Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith, who led a latest Royal Society research on future vitality provide, mentioned that the Local weather Change Committee solely ‘checked out a single 12 months’ of knowledge exhibiting the variety of windy days in a 12 months when it made pronouncements on the extent to which the UK may depend on wind and photo voltaic farms to satisfy internet zero.’”
A exceptional coincidence
By Andrew Montford, Internet Zero Watch, Jan 24, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/an-extraordinary-coincidence
The CCC Should Pay The Penalty For False Recommendation
By George Lawson, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 23, 2024
[SEPP Comment: According to its website, the UK “Climate Change Committee (CCC) is an independent, statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008. Our purpose is to advise the UK and devolved governments on emissions targets and to report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for and adapting to the impacts of climate change.”] https://www.theccc.org.uk/about/
How The Met Workplace Used To Report Gales
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 22, 2024
NOAA’s Yr 2023 “Chosen Vital Local weather Anomalies and Occasions” Diagram Misrepresents each Anomalies and Occasions
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Jan 25, 2024
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Yellow (Inexperienced) Journalism?
Local weather Change Weekly #494: Related Press Takes Extra Cash to Promote Local weather Alarm
By H. Sterling Burnett, Atmosphere & Local weather Information, Jan 26 2024
Declare: Financially Distressed Canadians Ought to Prioritise Local weather Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 20, 2024
EVs the most effective, say folks paid to say such issues
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
“In an exceptionally brazen piece of state-funded journal activism, Canada’s CBC, in the midst of bitter chilly that threatened to forged doubt on the federal authorities’s plan to make us all drive EVs whether or not we wish to or not, wrote a ‘information’ story that ‘Electrical automobiles ‘the most effective car’ in frigid temperatures, Sask. advocates say’. And when reporters on the federal government payroll relay the phrases of activists who simply occur to help authorities coverage, who may object? Nicely, us.”
Speaking Higher to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Imprecise?
Passing 1.5C World Warming is Now an “Alternative”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 24, 2024
Oh snap!
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
“’Actually, the report temperatures we noticed in latest weeks would ‘probably’ have been even colder with out local weather change.’”
“How are you aware? As a result of it’s getting hotter. And the way are you aware it’s getting hotter? As a result of the chilly snap would have been snappier in any other case.”
Speaking Higher to the Public – Make issues up.
Met Workplace Lie About “Extra Intense Storms”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 22, 2024
“It’s time that the Met Workplace’s local weather change work was defunded, and the group returned to its proud custom as a Meteorological Workplace.”
Speaking Higher to the Public – Do a Ballot?
The Winter of Our Discontent
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Jan 23, 2024
“A latest Rasmussen Ballot reveals an interesting, albeit regarding, development: whereas nearly all of People report this winter being no worse than standard, a good portion nonetheless imagine local weather change is exacerbating excessive climate. This discovering, coupled with the shifting attitudes towards electrical autos, paints a fancy image of public opinion and media affect.”
Will 2024 be hotter than 2023?
By David Whitehouse, Internet Zero Watch, Jan 24, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/2xqy3h43u0buz8avc8hocl263yn5jr
Speaking Higher to the Public – Go Private.
Our Greatest Local weather Realism Communicators
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 23, 2024
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Propaganda
The Instances covers up for the Inexperienced blob
By Andrew Montford, Internet Zero Watch, Jan 26, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/the-times-covers-up-for-the-green-blob
“The information usually are not in dispute.
1. The CCC’s 2019 report, which put us on the street to Internet Zero, examined a single 12 months of wind knowledge
2. A 2023 CCC report examined 5 remoted years.
3. Analyzing remoted years underestimates prices due to the additional storage wanted to protect in opposition to back-to-back wind drought years, and that was the premise of the Royal Society’s criticism.”
Heat Is Chilly and Down Is Up 2024
By Ron Clutz, Science Issues, Jan 22, 2024
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Propaganda on Youngsters
Rain is Attributable to Carbon
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 23, 2024
“Ms. Neumeister was one among 39 elementary faculty lecturers from throughout town who participated in a four-day coaching session in the summertime referred to as ‘Integrating Local weather Schooling in N.Y.C. Public Faculties.’ Its aim was to make the lecturers acquainted with the subject, to allow them to work local weather become their lesson plans.”
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Youngsters for Propaganda
White Home official cites younger, climate-focused voters as key Biden constituency after LNG announcement
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 26, 2024
“White Home local weather adviser Ali Zaidi outlined the scientific rationale behind the Biden administration’s pause on some liquefied pure fuel (LNG) export approvals, however he acknowledged younger and climate-focused voters as a key constituency when requested whether or not they influenced the choice to implement the pause.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: The scientific rationale is omitted!]
Increasing the Orthodoxy
Tidbits
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
“The WEF creates a web-based World Collaboration Village, apparently unaware that Marshall McLuhan thought the ‘international village’ was a spot inhospitable to rational thought.”
Questioning European Inexperienced
Markers Alongside The Highway To The Loss of life Of Internet Zero
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 20, 2024
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/weblog/2024-1-20-markers-along-the-road-to-the-death-of-net-zero
“However maybe, as an alternative of a sudden crash, the demise of the inexperienced vitality phantasm will look extra like a gradual however regular decline, a gradual withering of financial exercise and prosperity. On this state of affairs, excessive vitality costs caused by vitality restrictions drive vital industries out of enterprise and, nearly as good jobs disappear and vitality costs improve, the folks step by step and inexorably get poorer. Latest occasions within the UK and Germany appear to level within the route of any such state of affairs.”
“’ Chemical large BASF has been a pillar of German enterprise for greater than 150 years, underpinning the nation’s industrial rise with a gentle stream of innovation that helped make “Made in Germany” the envy of the world. However its newest moonshot — a $10 billion funding in a state-of-the-art advanced the corporate claims would be the gold customary for sustainable manufacturing — isn’t going up in Germany. As an alternative, it’s being erected 9,000 kilometers away in China. . . . [BASF] is scaling again in Germany.’”
“Politico notes that within the 15 years because the 2008/09 recession, the U.S. financial system has grown by some 76%, whereas the German financial system has grown by solely 19%. Oh, that’s the identical interval of Germany’s ‘Energiewende,’ which has included forcing electrical energy costs to go to triple the U.S. stage.”
What a backflip: The Greatest political occasion within the EU now needs to drop the ban on petrol and diesel automobiles
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Jan 23, 2024
Are Labour sleepwalking to vitality catastrophe?
By Capell Aris, Internet Zero Watch, Jan 23, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/are-labour-sleepwalking-to-disaster
Germany Went All In On The Inexperienced Transition. Now, Its Economic system Is Crumbling
By Nick Pope, Day by day Caller, Jan 21, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/21/germany-green-transition-economy-crumbling/
Electrical automobiles and warmth pumps appear destined to make us freeze
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 20, 2024
Faculty Closes Six Instances In Three Months As a result of Of Internet Zero Agenda
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 21, 2024
“’ A main faculty has been pressured to shut six occasions in simply three months as a result of its model new £358,000 warmth pump system retains failing.’”
Danish Warmth Pump Gross sales Plummet
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 22, 2024
Questioning Inexperienced Elsewhere
Inexperienced goals are made of those
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
“However she [Canadian Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland] did emerge to burble that ‘Canada is completely decided that decarbonization for us, will imply extra jobs, extra development, extra manufacturing and we acknowledge, authorities must play a job to make that occur.’ It’s a type of propositions pushed totally by conviction reasonably than proof. She in all probability even believes it, that means, as soon as once more, it’s not a conspiracy, it’s a plan, hidden in plain sight, to impose inexperienced socialism on a sluggish however in the end presumably grateful populace.”
“However he [Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault] and Freeland usually are not engaged in learning what really occurs, on the lookout for sensible difficulties and discovering confirmed methods to get round them or mitigate them. Their pondering is on a really completely different stage.
It entails intentionally experiencing trance-like visions of latest sorts of expertise working much better than they presently do, and shifting on to the transformative results they may have on an financial system if each they and the federal government labored much better than they presently do.”
Most clear energy buying methods do little to chop emissions, research finds
By Colton Poore, TechXplore, Jan 23, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://techxplore.com/information/2024-01-power-strategies-emissions.html
Hyperlink to paper: System-level impacts of voluntary carbon-free electrical energy procurement methods
By Qingyu Xu, et al., Joule, Jan 11, 2024
Inexperienced Jobs
Internet Zero Jobs? British Authorities Affords £500 Million Inexperienced Funding for 2500 Job Losses
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 21, 2024
Non-Inexperienced Jobs
Ross Clark & The Insanity of the Port Talbot fiasco
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 20, 2024
“Ross Clark’s level about pig iron is extremely related. With none blast furnace, Port Talbot must purchase pig iron, nearly definitely from China or India.
There may be additionally a secondary situation. I strongly suspect that Tata’s plans contain reducing manufacturing considerably, as they may now not be capable of make prime quality metal simply utilizing scrap. If I’m proper, a lot of these 2800 job losses might be within the rolling and ending mills, reasonably than simply within the blast furnaces and coke ovens.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: Electric arc furnaces cannot produce pig iron from iron ore (high in iron oxides) that is then processed into steel, an alloy. Electric arc furnaces recycle scrap steel]
Funding Points
New Aussie Retirement Fund Guidelines to Permit Dangerous Inexperienced Tech Investments
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 24, 2024
“Australian Superannuation (retirement) funds have satisfied the federal government to permit them extra freedom to ‘make investments’ in dangerous inexperienced tech startups.”
The Political Video games Proceed
White Home slaps $1 trillion price ticket on local weather report
By Timothy Cama, E & E Information, Greenwire, Jan 22, 2024
“Vice President Kamala Harris goes large in her efforts to promote the administration’s local weather change and environmental agenda, with a $1 trillion price ticket.
In a sequence of latest appearances, Harris has used the determine to boast about her and President Joe Biden’s accomplishments, normally with out going into the mathematics that bought her there.
It’s not the $2 trillion local weather and social spending plan Biden promised in his 2020 marketing campaign for workplace, which fell prey to legislative realties like a carefully divided Senate.”
[SEPP Comment: Since FY 2021, the federal debt has grown from $28.43 trillion to
$33.99 trillion in January 2024.]
https://www.investopedia.com/us-national-debt-by-year-7499291
Feedback requested on draft regulation to advertise offshore wind
By David Wojick, CFACT, Jan 21, 2024
https://www.cfact.org/2024/01/21/comments-requested-on-draft-law-to-promote-offshore-wind/
Hyperlink to press launch: [Senator] Whitehouse Releases Dialogue Draft of Invoice to Enhance Offshore Wind Improvement Course of
By Employees, January 9, 2024
https://www.whitehouse.senate.gov/information/launch/whitehouse-releases-discussion-draft-of-bill-to-improve-offshore-wind-development-process
“Feedback from stakeholders are requested by February 9 and ought to be despatched to Senator Whitehouse’s employees at collaborateact@whitehouse.senate.gov.”
Litigation Points
Storm Uri: The Supreme Courtroom’s Resolution (Half 3)
By Invoice Peacock, Grasp Useful resource, Jan 26, 2024
“’The dearth of funding in dependable and dispatchable sources of era in ERCOT has already led to a decline within the reliability of the grid…. Additional declines in era from dispatchable sources will additional improve costs for Texas shoppers—on prime of no matter worth hikes the PUC [Texas Public Utility Commission] might have deliberate for them.’”
Hyperlinks to earlier elements given.
Contained in the Left’s Spurious Authorized Technique To Take Down Oil and Gasoline Producers
By Meghan Blonder, Washington Free Beacon, Jan 22, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Tribes sue Biden administration over permits for high-voltage transmission line
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 24, 2024
Originality Befitting an Ivy League President
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Jan 23, 2024
Cap-and-Commerce and Carbon Taxes
Offended Motorists Need Highway Charging. (Or Not!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 26, 2024
Subsidies and Mandates Ceaselessly
Manchin blasts Biden steerage on EV charger tax credit score: ‘Spits within the face of rural America’
By Rachen Frazin, The Hill, Jan 24, 2024
EPA and different Regulators on the March
9 species in 33 states might quickly be on endangered checklist: US wildlife officers
By Alix Martichouk, The Hill, Jan 27, 2024
9 species in 33 states may soon be on endangered list: US wildlife officials
Power Points – Non-US
New research warns of hovering vitality payments
Press Launch, Internet Zero Watch, Jan 26, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/new-study-warns-of-soaring-energy-bills
Hyperlink to report: Costing the Inexperienced Grid: Present and future expertise
By Andrew Montford, Internet Zero Watch, 2024
Hyperlink to earlier report: Giant-scale electrical energy storage
By Employees, The Royal Society, September 2023
5 Power Sector Predictions for 2024
By Robert Rapier, Oil Value.com, Jan 25, 2024
https://oilprice.com/Power/Power-Normal/5-Power-Sector-Predictions-for-2024.html
Britain Imported £3.5 Billion Of Electrical energy Final Yr
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 20, 2024
Warmth Turns into Unaffordable In Germany… Seniors Wrestle, Staying Heat At Public Heating Locations…
By P Gosselin, No Tips Zone, Jan 23, 2024
https://notrickszone.com/2024/01/23/heat-becomes-unaffordable-in-germany-seniors-struggle-staying-warm-at-public-heatin
Power Points – Australia
Electrical energy costs fall from ridiculous peak nevertheless it’s not attributable to renewables and it’s nonetheless not low-cost
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Jan 26, 2024
“If our complete electrical energy grid was 100% brown coal, electrical energy can be half the worth.”
Power Points — US
The Key Concept for Pondering About Power
By Steven Hayward, PowerLine, Jan 24, 2024
Video: “Value, scale, and density are the three details of any good vitality evaluation (I name these the “Power Triumvirate”) and is what I drill college students about from the primary day of sophistication to the final day of sophistication.”
[SEPP Comment: Video emphasizes reliable, affordable, and scalable. Power Density is critical. Compromise is always necessary for achievable sources of generation.]
Washington’s Management of Power
FAULKENDER And MCPHERSON-SMITH: It’s Time To Take A Buzzsaw To Biden’s Beloved Local weather Regulation
By Michael Faulkender and Oliver McPherson-Smith, Day by day Caller, Jan 19, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/19/opinion-joe-biden-inflation-reduction-act-buzzsaw-faulkender-and-mcpherson-smith/
“And but, American vitality manufacturing has solely just lately recovered to pre-pandemic ranges. The offender, after all, is the president’s trillion-dollar chief legislative accomplishment – the cynically-titled Inflation Discount Act (IRA). As an alternative of deterring Russia and Iran, apparatchiks within the Biden administration use the IRA’s subsidies and tax credit to discourage dependable, reasonably priced vitality funding, thereby compounding our safety woes.”
White Home Selling Russian/Iranian Pure Gasoline Gross sales
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Jan 26, 2024
https://realclimatescience.com/2024/01/white-house-promoting-russian-iranian-natural-gas-sales/#gsc.tab=0
Environmental Legal guidelines That Impeded Pipelines For Years Might Journey Up Biden’s Dash Towards Offshore Wind
By Nick Pope, Day by day Caller, Jan 22, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/22/environmental-laws-threaten-biden-offshore-wind-lawsuit/
Oil and Pure Gasoline – the Future or the Previous?
Compressed for Time
In a pinch, just about all the pieces could possibly be run on pure fuel.
By Employees, Doomberg, Jan 24, 2024
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/compressed-for-time?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=343139&post_id=140972834&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&utm_medium=e mail
Return of King Coal?
Power: At Least We Have Some Coal Left
By David Archibald, WUWT, Jan 24, 2024
Nuclear Power and Fears
Visualizing All The Nuclear Waste In The World
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Jan 26, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.zerohedge.com/vitality/visualizing-all-nuclear-waste-world
Hinkley C and the rising price of internet zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 24, 2024
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Photo voltaic and Wind
One technique to maintain heat this winter
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Jan 24, 2024
“’One of many first classes any new engineering pupil learns of their supplies class is ‘chilly brittle behaviour’ of supplies. When it will get actually chilly, like -30 C or colder, many supplies lose a lot of their energy and are liable to shattering.’”
“Wind energy can’t get you thru the extended ‘chilly snap’ often known as winter in Canada. Nor can photo voltaic, together with if snow will get on the panels, to not point out hail. And for those who strive, you kill folks.”
Offshore Wind Stumbles
Builders face sudden obstacles.
By Jonathan A. Lesser, Metropolis Journal, Jan 23, 2024
https://www.city-journal.org/article/offshore-wind-stumbles
Offshore Wind and the Stress on Industrial Fishermen
By Craig Rucker, Actual Clear Power, Jan 25, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/01/25/offshore_wind_and_the_stress_on_commercial_fishermen_1007529.html
Blue State Doubles Down On Offshore Wind After 2023’s Huge Failure
By Nick Pope, Day by day Caller, Jan 25, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/25/blue-state-doubles-down-offshore-wind-2023-failure/
Wind & Photo voltaic Turbines Couldn’t Care Much less When You’re Freezing In The Darkish
By Employees, Cease These Issues, Jan 20, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Power — Different
Germany’s dream of constructing a fleet of hydrogen-fired energy crops is faltering
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 26, 2024
Nationwide Audit Workplace Questions Drax’s Greenwashing
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 26, 2024
“The Drax plant in Selby, North Yorkshire, receives subsidies to assist generate 6pc of Britain’s electrical energy, which it achieves by burning 7m tonnes of wooden a 12 months.
Drax has claimed that the wooden is sourced sustainably, though the Nationwide Audit Workplace (NAO) has sought to query this: ‘The Authorities can’t reveal that its present preparations are sufficient to provide it confidence that business is assembly sustainability requirements.’”
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Power — Storage
Does the Local weather Change Committee perceive the vitality storage downside?
By Andrew Montford, Internet Zero Watch, Jan 25, 2024
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/a-masterpiece-of-bureaucratic-obfuscation
How A lot Wind Energy Would We Want For Backup Storage?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 23, 2024
“’ Returning to my publish on this story the opposite day, you’ll recall that the Royal Society reckons we are going to want 100 TWh of storage in 2050, to cowl for variations in wind and solar energy.
Clearly, this guidelines out any vital contribution from batteries and there are solely so many pumped storage techniques we are able to construct. So, until we go hell for leather-based and construct numerous nuclear crops, that leaves simply hydrogen as a doable resolution.’”
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Automobiles
Third Electrical Bus Fireplace In London This Month
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 26, 2024
Electrical automobiles price twice as a lot to insure as petrol and diesel autos
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 26, 2024
EVs Might Value Extra Over Lifetime Than Gasoline Powered Counterparts: Examine
A brand new research reveals that many electrical autos price extra to function than their gasoline powered counterparts.
By Tom Ozimek, The Epoch Instances, Jan 17, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/evs-may-cost-more-over-lifetime-than-gas-powered-counterparts-study-5567762?utm_source=Morningbrief&src_src=Morningbrief&utm_campaign=mb-2024-01-18&src_cmp=mb-2024-01-18&utm_medium=e mail&est=TmvN1hIJkdzpercent2B662NpYarfiuGxDGestp7E2Ni8nimm397ewxGtRyUT7dCzgpercent3Dpercent3D
Hyperlink to paper: Electrical and gasoline car whole price of possession throughout US cities
By Maxwell Woody, et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, Jan 3, 2024
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13463
Strikes By Ford and Hertz Show EVs Are Nonetheless the ‘Subsequent Huge Factor’
By Robert Bryce, Actual Clear Power, Jan 25, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/01/25/moves_by_ford_and_hertz_prove_evs_are_still_the_next_big_thing_1007272.html
“In 1901, the Los Angeles Instances declared, ‘The electrical car will rapidly and simply take priority over all different.’” [Boldface added]
Electrical bikes begin report variety of fires in New York
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 22, 2024
“’ In line with figures launched by the New York Fireplace Division to Fox Information, e-bikes – powered by lithium-ion batteries – had been accountable for 267 fires within the metropolis.’”
Carbon Schemes
Carbon Seize Is a Bipartisan Local weather Win
By Collin C. Peterson, Actual Clear Power, Jan 23, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/01/23/carbon_capture_is_a_bipartisan_climate_win_1006870.html
[SEPP Comment: Other than using CO2 for oil recovery, where is there successful, affordable carbon dioxide capture?]
California Dreaming
Newsom declares state of emergency for elements of Southern California amid report rainfall
By Sharon Udansin, the Hill, Jan 23, 2024
Newsom declares state of emergency for parts of Southern California amid record rainfall
“This made Monday the fourth wettest day in 174 years of information, behind solely Oct. 4, 1923; April 5, 1926; and Dec. 2, 1854, per the NWS.”
[SEPP Comment: What happened to “it never rains in Southern California?”]
Well being, Power, and Local weather
Pediatrics For Dummies: AAP Parrots Anti-Glyphosate Propaganda
By Cameron English, ACSH, Jan 16, 2024
https://www.acsh.org/information/2024/01/16/pediatrics-dummies-aap-parrots-anti-glyphosate-propaganda-17585
Hyperlink to report: Use of Genetically Modified Organism (GMO)-Containing Meals Merchandise in Youngsters
By Steven A. Abrams, MD, FAAP, et al., (together with a member of Council on Environmental Well being and Local weather Change), American Academy of Pediatrics, Dec 11, 2023
https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/153/1/e2023064774/196193/Use-of-Genetically-Modified-Organism-GMO?autologincheck=redirected
“The AAP has been among the many most vocal medical associations complaining about America’s growing skepticism of science, warning in 2019 ‘that the US healthcare system is coming into right into a disaster of belief.’ The Academy has ginned up all kinds of methods to reverse that development. However apparently, nobody at AAP has thought-about an vital risk: its ideological stances on all the pieces from gun violence and local weather change to transgender medication and agriculture are fueling the general public’s mistrust.”
Oh Mann!
Males at Struggle, Rand Simberg Should Win (Half 3)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Weblog, Jan 27, 2024
Hyperlinks to earlier posts on the Mann litigation are given.
Environmental Trade
EV Proponents in Hiding? David Cooke (Union of Involved Scientists) Declines AEI
By Robert Bradley Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Jan 23, 2024
Different Scientific Information
One of many longest jet streams in reminiscence
By Cliff Mass, Climate Weblog, Jan 22, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/01/one-of-longest-jet-streams-in-memory.html
“Yesterday I noticed the present map of winds at 300 hPa (about 30,000 ft) for your complete Northern Hemisphere and was greatly surprised: the longest steady jet stream I can keep in mind.
As proven by the map legitimate 1 PM Sunday, robust westerly winds exceeding 100 knots stretch from Iran to Baja, California. Midway across the total Northern Hemisphere. About 8000 miles.”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Declare: Local weather Change is Answerable for a “Pothole Plague” – however Robots may Assist
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 25, 2024
Cattle Egrets Fleeing From Local weather Change, Say Guardian!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Jan 20, 2024
“In conclusion: There isn’t any proof in any respect to ascribe the title ‘local weather refugees’ to cattle egrets. They’re clearly extremely adaptable birds which have taken benefit of area of interest habitats and meals sources created by mankind and have unfold across the globe accordingly.”
Fifty Years Into The Ice Age
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Jan 26, 2024
https://realclimatescience.com/2024/01/fifty-years-into-the-ice-age/#gsc.tab=0
ARTICLES
1. Biden and the TikTok Anti-LNG Campaign
His ‘pause’ on export permits could also be his most damaging local weather act—damaging to the financial system at house and U.S. affect overseas.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Jan. 26, 2024
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-lng-export-pause-white-house-tiktok-climate-bill-mckibben-3efb5287?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
TWTW Abstract: The important thing half is mentioned within the This Week Part above
