Elon Musk Expects Tesla Car Gross sales Development In 2024

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One of many huge surprises this 12 months to this point was Tesla’s Q1 gross sales dropping 12 months over 12 months. Tesla mentioned for a very long time its objective was 50% progress 12 months over 12 months. Sure, Elon Musk and crew additionally certified that to say it wasn’t anticipated to be regular progress and a few years can be up greater than others. However destructive progress is a far method away from 50% progress.

Together with the drop in gross sales, Elon Musk mentioned a number of months in the past that Tesla wasn’t going to present any steering on what they anticipate in 2024. That’s proper — breaking from custom, it was as much as everybody else to guess what number of autos Tesla hoped to promote in 2024. Unsurprisingly, that didn’t sit tremendous nicely with the funding group and some huge cash left the inventory.

On at this time’s Tesla convention name relating to 1st quarter numbers, based mostly on the Q1 efficiency, Musk was requested if Tesla gross sales would drop in all of 2024 12 months over 12 months. He responded that, no, they do anticipate gross sales progress. That was the extent of it, although. We didn’t get any particular quantity Tesla is concentrating on or anticipating.

Although, somewhat extra was mentioned about why gross sales had been down within the 1st quarter. “We skilled quite a few challenges in Q1, from the Purple Sea battle and the arson assault at Gigafactory Berlin, to the gradual ramp of the up to date Mannequin 3 in Fremont,” the Tesla shareholder letter said. These issues had been additionally talked about on the convention name, together with feedback about manufacturing being considerably better than deliveries as a consequence of what are basically logistics points and that there was demand for sure fashions in some areas the place Tesla couldn’t get them whereas these fashions had been in oversupply elsewhere.

There’s additionally the matter of gross sales being down in China, and Musk commented that Tesla’s opponents’ gross sales had been down extra, however there was no dialogue as to why gross sales would go up once more in China. “Manufacturing at Gigafactory Shanghai was down sequentially as a consequence of seasonality and deliberate shutdowns round Chinese language New 12 months in Q1. Demand sometimes improves all year long,” Tesla writes. However the Chinese language New 12 months was within the first quarter final 12 months, too. “As we enter new markets, resembling Chile, a lot of them might be provided from Gigafactory Shanghai,” the corporate added.

General, this graph captures modifications in Tesla’s market share by main market area:

As you possibly can see, Tesla’s market share was down in every single place — barely down, however down nonetheless. And, truly, it was within the US and Canada the place it was down essentially the most. On that matter, Tesla writes, “Mannequin 3 manufacturing in Fremont was down sequentially as we modified the manufacturing line to the up to date mannequin. Sequentially, Mannequin Y manufacturing at Gigafactory Texas elevated to an all-time excessive, whereas COGS per unit improved to an all-time low.”

Then there’s Europe. Right here’s Tesla’s quick clarification for why gross sales had been down in Europe: “Mannequin Y manufacturing in Berlin was down sequentially as a consequence of impacts from the Purple Sea battle and the arson assault that impacted the manufacturing facility. Regardless of idle capability prices and different prices from manufacturing disruptions, COGS per unit continued to say no sequentially.” So, there’s that.

On the shareholder convention name at this time, the executives talked about a few occasions the way it was simply “one factor after one other” and an ideal storm of assorted points around the globe that harm Tesla’s gross sales.

There have been different indicators that there’s extra happening than all that. There have been a number of worth cuts, there’s been way more advertising and marketing and promoting, after which there have been after all the entire layoffs. There’s additionally been some analysis on the market on some parts of the general public shedding curiosity in Tesla autos. However the official phrase for now’s that Q1 gross sales suffered as a consequence of a bunch of logistics points and that 2024 gross sales must be larger than 2023 gross sales — that’s the expectation at Tesla, at the least. What do you suppose?