EVs Take 91.0% Share In Norway — Volvo EX30 Grabs High Spot

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The auto market noticed plugin EVs take 91.0% share in Norway in April, roughly flat from 91.1% yr on yr. BEVs alone took 89.4% share, up from 83.3% YoY. General auto quantity was 11,241 items, up 25% YoY, a restoration over latest months. April’s finest promoting BEV was the Volvo EX30. 

April’s gross sales information noticed mixed EVs take 91.0% share in Norway, comprising 89.4% full electrics (BEVs), and 1.6% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These evaluate with YoY figures of 91.1% mixed, 83.3% BEV and 7.8% PHEV.

The coverage modifications from January 1st are actually limiting PHEV gross sales, and have given an additional enhance to BEV gross sales. An unlucky facet impact is that HEVs are actually promoting nearly 3× greater than PHEVs, which isn’t any sort of win. Why not? PHEVs will be pushed on electrical energy alone more often than not (when used as designed), whereas HEVs need to derive all their power from combustion.

There’s additionally probably a residual hangover impact for PHEVs, which had a robust pull-forward forward of the January 1st modifications (see graph beneath). The hangover might move within the coming few months and see PHEVs and HEVs extra balanced. If not, tweaks to the coverage dials could also be required.

However, BEVs now account for 90% of the auto market yr up to now, and all different powertrains are on the way in which out. Petrol-only gross sales are particularly weak, with below 1% of the market thus far in 2024. Diesel-only share is round 2.5% of the market YTD.

Finest Promoting BEVs

Having launched again in January, the brand new Volvo EX30 has had an important climb, and reached the highest spot in April, with 1,095 items bought.

The Volkswagen ID.4 took second place with 963 items, and the ID.3 got here in third with 733 items.

I’ve to apologise for not itemizing the Volvo EX30 in Norway’s consequence beforehand, because it the truth is debuted in Norway in January (with 87 items and the twelfth spot). My supply information didn’t decide up on its preliminary gross sales till now, so I used to be additionally at the hours of darkness.

That omission is now corrected, so let’s fill within the lacking information — it bought 213 items in February (sixth spot), and 344 items in March (third spot).

Now in 1st place, that is an astonishingly quick rise for the brand new Volvo compact SUV. It’s priced from NOK 321,900 (€27,500) for the bottom 49 kWh battery variant, with the bigger battery choice (64 kWh usable) priced from NOK 366,900 (€31,300).

This undercuts the value of the very fashionable Hyundai Kona, which has been in (or near) Norway’s prime 10 since 2018. The Kona that comes with a intently matched 65.4 kWh battery has an MSRP of NOK 388,900 (€33,200). The Kona is now (after the 2024 refresh) the marginally bigger of the 2 (4355 mm vs. 4233 mm), nevertheless, and has about 8% extra real-world vary.

And but, the EX30 is quicker on lengthy journeys because of a lot quicker DC charging, going from 10% to 80% in simply 25 minutes (vs. 41 minutes for the Kona). It’s also much more highly effective, even out-accelerating the bottom Tesla Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y, with a 0-to-100 km/h time of 5.3 seconds (or 5.7 seconds for the 49 kWh variant). What’s to not like?

Getting again to April’s prime 20 rankings, each the ID.3 and the ID.4 (and to some extent the Audi This fall and Skoda Enyaq) recovered from a unusually quiet first quarter for the Volkswagen Group MEB fashions.

There have been a couple of new BEV fashions debuting in April. The Sensible #3 noticed 5 items registered, its first since a single unit appeared in February. The Sensible #3 shares a platform with the Volvo EX30, however is bigger and dearer.

One other debut mannequin was the Mini Countryman, with 17 preliminary items (for primary specs, see the Sweden report).

Lastly, two BYD fashions got here to Norway in April, a couple of months after showing elsewhere in Europe. These are the BYD Seal (49 items) and the BYD Dolphin (49 items). The Seal is a Tesla Mannequin 3 rival, whereas the Dolphin is an MG4 rival. These are comparatively good worth BEVs, and are big sellers in China, so let’s see how they get on.

Let’s inspect the trailing 3 month chart:

Regardless of its comparatively low quantity in April, the Tesla Mannequin Y remains to be massively dominant in Norway over the long term, and that is unlikely to alter a lot this yr. It nearly matches the gross sales of the subsequent three hottest fashions mixed.

The Volvo EX30 has already taken second place behind the Tesla, and shortly these two will probably be a very good hole away from the followers.

Be aware the Volkswagen ID. Buzz is now in 4th place after a robust April. This can be a outstanding efficiency for a big MPV, and is helped by its comparatively low pricing in Norway in comparison with all different markets. It’s obtainable from NOK 618,100 (€52,800), whereas the MSRP in different components of Europe is often over 20% extra (e.g., in Germany, it’s €64,600).

Fleet Replace

Right here’s the newest fleet transition chart, now up to date to incorporate the Q1 2024 information:

We are able to see that Norway’s fleet transition to plugins is slowing, due to the decelerate in new auto gross sales over the previous yr or so. This received’t change till the financial scenario recovers (dialogue beneath).

Over Q1 2024, the BEV share of the fleet grew from 24.2% to 24.8%, only a 0.6% change. Mixed with PHEVs, general plugin share grew from 31.4% to 32.0%, additionally a 0.6% change (with PHEV gross sales being negligible throughout Q1).

This can be a great distance from the halcyon days of 2021, when the fleet transition to plugins was occurring at a charge of 1.4% per quarter in some durations, and shut to five% per yr general.

Outlook

Norway’s auto trade affiliation, the OFV, factors to nationwide financial elements taking part in a task within the basic slowdown of the auto market. We don’t but have Q1 2024 information on Norway’s GDP. Although, January was higher than latest months. The information for This fall 2023 confirmed 0.5% YoY progress, from damaging 1.9% in Q3. Inflation improved to three.9% in March (newest information) from 4.5% in February. Rates of interest have been flat at 4.5% since December. Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.4 factors in April, from 50.7 in March.

The OFV acknowledged that “Folks have a extra strained financial system… We now present better moderation and purchase smaller and extra reasonably priced new automobiles… We are going to most likely have to attend till the primary rate of interest reduce earlier than optimism returns to new automotive consumers” (OFV April assertion, machine translated).

What are your ideas on Norway’s EV progress? What must occur now to satisfy the aspirational objective of 100% zero emission by 2025? Is it nonetheless attainable? Please be a part of within the dialogue beneath.