The Photo voltaic Vitality Industries Affiliation (SEIA) reported in March that the U.S. photo voltaic business put in 32.4 GWdc of capability in 2023, a exceptional 51% improve in comparison with 2022. It was the business’s greatest 12 months by far, exceeding 30 GWdc of capability for the primary time. Total, photovoltaic (PV) photo voltaic accounted for 53% of all new U.S. electricity-generating capability additions in 2023, making up greater than half of latest producing capability for the primary time. The utility, industrial and industrial, and residential sectors all set annual set up data, whereas the group photo voltaic sector was inside 5 MWdc of an annual report.
But, this isn’t only a U.S. story, photo voltaic capability is rising exponentially around the globe. In its Renewables 2023 report, the Worldwide Vitality Company (IEA) mentioned 2023 noticed a step change in renewable capability additions, pushed by China’s photo voltaic PV market. It mentioned international annual renewable capability additions elevated by nearly 50% to just about 510 GW final 12 months—the quickest progress price up to now 20 years. 2023 was the twenty second 12 months in a row that renewable capability additions set a brand new report, in line with the IEA.
Whereas the will increase in renewable capability in Europe, the U.S., and Brazil hit all-time highs, China’s acceleration was extraordinary. In 2023, China commissioned as a lot photo voltaic PV as all the world did in 2022. Photo voltaic PV accounted for three-quarters of renewable capability additions worldwide.
Utility-scale initiatives are what actually drive the business. Within the U.S., utility-scale installations spiked to 22.5 GWdc of capability, in line with SEIA, a 77% improve over 2022. The non permanent moratorium on anticircumvention tariffs relevant to sure imports from 4 Southeast Asian international locations introduced some aid to the photo voltaic provide chain, serving to initiatives transfer ahead final 12 months. The moratorium ends in June 2024, nonetheless, so we’ll see how that impacts initiatives within the second half of this 12 months.
The Texas Grid Evolves
Texas was the main state for photo voltaic installations in 2023. Since 2021, greater than 15 GW of latest photo voltaic capability has been added in Texas. Moreover, SEIA predicts Texas will lead the nation with practically 100 GW of latest photo voltaic capability additions from 2024 to 2034, outpacing the subsequent closest state by a two-to-one margin.
In line with the Electrical Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid operator for about 90% of the load in Texas, photo voltaic technology provided 32.4 TWh to its grid in 2023—7.29% of the annual complete. Within the first quarter of 2024, the share elevated to eight.16%, which is notable as a result of the winter season shouldn’t be sometimes a primary interval for photo voltaic manufacturing. It’s additionally notable in that photo voltaic was not far behind nuclear (9.92%) or coal (12.10%) in ERCOT’s first quarter power combine. Pure gasoline–fired technology (40.42%) and wind (29.41%) had been the clear leaders in Texas, nonetheless.
Whereas photo voltaic solely accounts for 13.2% of Texas’ put in capability, in line with ERCOT’s December 2023 Capability, Demand, and Reserves (CDR) report for Summer season 2024, it will possibly have a major influence on the grid throughout peak instances. An April 2024 ERCOT reality sheet exhibits the photo voltaic technology report of 18,881 MW was set on March 28 this 12 months. The photo voltaic penetration report was additionally set that day at 42.98%. Whereas these numbers are astounding, it appears doubtless that the technology report might be eclipsed someday this summer season, and frequently within the not-to-distant future.
The Duck Curve Waddles into Texas
The rise in photo voltaic technology in Texas is beginning to create a duck curve within the ERCOT grid, much like what has lengthy been noticed within the California Unbiased System Operator’s (CAISO’s) grid. For just a little background, the duck curve was first delivered to mild in 2013 when CAISO printed a chart that confirmed the distinction in electrical energy demand and the quantity of obtainable photo voltaic power all through the day. The curve was a snapshot of a 24-hour interval in California throughout springtime, which is when the impact is most excessive as a result of it’s sunny however temperatures stay cool, so demand for electrical energy is low as a result of individuals don’t want to make use of a lot electrical energy for air-con or heating. CAISO confirmed how the sample created by the noon dip within the internet load curve, adopted by a steep rise within the night when photo voltaic technology drops off, seems to be just like the define of a duck, therefore the title.
Since 2013, California’s duck curve has solely gotten deeper as increasingly solar energy has been added to the CAISO grid. In truth, on some days, the online demand curve goes damaging in California.
The state of affairs in Texas is nowhere close to as excessive as that seen in California. Nevertheless, the rise in photo voltaic technology is starting to have a noticeable impact. The U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) printed an article on April 9 evaluating ERCOT’s common hourly electrical energy technology in winter 2022–2023 to winter 2023–2024. The solar-caused dip was distinctively bigger this previous winter. Moreover, it’s been noticed that the duck curve is more and more occurring in different components of the world in locations the place the share of photo voltaic technology is rising in comparison with technology from standard sources.
Each energy grid is totally different and operators will find yourself coping with will increase in photo voltaic capability in their very own distinctive methods. In ERCOT’s case, it has way more dispatchable gas-fired technology to play with than CAISO does and its vital wind sources have a tendency to enrich photo voltaic somewhat than amplifying the issue, so it might have a better time managing the state of affairs, no less than in the intervening time.
—Aaron Larson is POWER’s govt editor.
