Bangladesh’s ruling social gathering, the Awami League, began its fourth consecutive time period in authorities this 12 months with a promise to cooperate with India, Nepal and Bhutan and guarantee equitable water sharing.
In an election manifesto launched on the finish of 2023, social gathering president and present Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stated her authorities will proceed to cooperate with neighbouring nations, together with on problems with cross-border communication, transit, vitality partnerships and equitable water sharing.
However consultants concern that many points round transboundary rivers will stay unresolved between each Bangladesh and India. Amongst these, the much-talked-about settlement on water sharing for the Teesta river can be on the forefront. One other main problem for each governments goes to be the renewal of the Ganges water-sharing treaty which expires in 2026.
The Awami League-led authorities has been in energy since 2009, however has not made any vital progress on transboundary water cooperation with India.
Sheikh Rokon, a river activist and normal secretary of the Dhaka-based suppose tank Riverine Individuals stated, “Prior to now decade, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have met at the least six occasions and issued joint statements.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has visited Delhi 3 times and Narendra Modi has visited Dhaka twice. In the course of the Covid-19 pandemic, a digital assembly was held between the 2 premiers. However the problem of the Ganges water-sharing settlement was by no means on the principle agenda.”
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Contemplating the cultural proximity and historic context [between India and Bangladesh as well], an settlement ought to have been established by now. Even the Ganga treaty took 25 years to materialise after the beginning of Bangladesh in 1971.
Himanshu Thakkar, campaigner, South Asia Community on Dams, Rivers and Individuals
The beginning of the JRC and its 50-year ‘successes’
The formal mechanism for managing the joint rivers was established by the 2 nations in 1972 by means of the formation of the Joint River Fee (JRC). The JRC was shaped as a part of the Indo-Bangladesh Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Peace in March 1972 to work for frequent pursuits resembling irrigation, floods and cyclone management in addition to sharing of water assets.
Based on the guidelines of process of the JRC, at the least 4 conferences must be held in a 12 months, which might have meant that 208 ought to have been held over 52 years, however in actuality, solely 38 conferences have taken place. The thirty eighth JRC ministerial-level assembly in August 2022 was the latest, and was held after a spot of 12 years.
Regardless of being greater than half a century outdated, the success of the fee has been restricted. Within the a long time of negotiations, the 2 nations have been in a position to ink one profitable treaty, the one on sharing Ganges river water in December 1996, a milestone that eased tensions between the neighbours and paved the way in which for larger collaboration on transboundary points. That treaty is about to run out in two years.
The negotiation on the sharing of the Teesta river water began in 1983 with a short-term settlement. In 2011, an interim settlement for 15 years was able to be signed by each the nations on the Teesta. However the deal was shelved because the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamta Banerjee opposed it.
JRC member Mohammad Abul Hossen stated that although the committee fulfilled its position as a technical committee and drafted working agreements for water secretaries of each nations to overview, a scarcity of consensus between each side on the Teesta meant that makes an attempt at formalising a treaty failed in 1997, 1999 and 2003.
Eminent water professional Ainun Nishat, who was a JRC member throughout signing the Ganges water-sharing settlement, defined that the JRC’s initiatives and choices can’t be carried out until there’s political consensus.
Nishat cited the sequence of conferences and makes an attempt that led to the failed Teesta settlement when Banerjee opposed signing in 2011, including “Since then, the JRC Bangladesh chapter has been following up with Indian counterparts for the signing of the settlement. However nothing has occurred up to now.”
Constructing political consensus on water-sharing
The Bangladesh authorities seems severe about resolving excellent river points with India. Submit-elections, Indian Excessive Commissioner Prannoy Verma was the primary international envoy to satisfy the brand new international minister Hasan Mahmud. After the assembly, the international minister stated the assembly touched on the Ganga water-sharing settlement in addition to the Teesta, however urged that any progress on the latter needed to await the end result of India’s ongoing normal elections.
Chatting with The Third Pole, Himanshu Thakkar from the South Asia Community on Dams, Rivers and Individuals defined that there are a number of components that make this negotiation advanced. “In any water settlement, there’s an upstream and downstream dynamic. The upstream nation typically sees no direct cause to enter into an settlement, because it doesn’t instantly face penalties until compelled by different components. For instance, if two nations are intently tied economically by means of commerce and different ventures, it’s simpler to barter agreements,” he stated.
He gave the instance of Bhutan, which is upstream of India, and but – due to their shut relations – managing water has been simpler.
“Contemplating the cultural proximity and historic context [between India and Bangladesh as well], an settlement ought to have been established by now,” Thakkar added, whereas noting that this had not accelerated negotiations. “Even the Ganga treaty took 25 years to materialise after the beginning of Bangladesh in 1971.”
In the end, Thakkar stated India’s place as an upstream nation regarding a lot of the 54 rivers it shares with Bangladesh means it lacks home strain to enter such agreements.
A method that cooperation could possibly be elevated, Thakkar felt, was by means of a wider river basin perspective. “For instance,” he stated, “When China’s infrastructure tasks like dams on the Brahmaputra, have an effect on the area… India protests such developments, Bangladesh – although additionally a downstream nation [on the Brahmaputra in relation to China] typically doesn’t voice considerations, maybe attributable to geopolitical components.”
Within the case of Banerjee, he added, “If West Bengal had been to have interaction in such a treaty, it might be at some value, which may result in political backlash. Due to this fact, Bangladesh should work to foster the correct environment for West Bengal to conform to the Teesta settlement.”
“Regardless of the sturdy ties between West Bengal and Bangladesh, navigating the political panorama stays difficult for each events. Timing and circumstances are essential for progress in such agreements.”
Nishat attracts consideration to the success of drafting agreements for the Ganga and the Indus (The Indus Waters Treaty). “We’ve got two profitable water-sharing agreements, however in each instances, the situation is completely different. For the Indus treaty, the World Financial institution performed an important position and there was an arbitration course of which led the 2 nations to signal the treaty. However within the case of the JRC, there’s nothing within the center just like the World Financial institution. It’s fully depending on political consensus. Due to this fact, the JRC won’t be able to satisfy its mandate until our political consensus is there.”
This text was initially revealed on Dialogue Earth underneath a Artistic Commons licence.
