Tesla Cybertruck Would possibly Already Be Passing Ford F-150 Lightning & Rivian R1T — Truck Wars Over?

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I wrote a few days in the past that Tesla produced 1,000 Cybertrucks one week final month. It’s a notable milestone, but when that was the output each week this 12 months, that will nonetheless simply be just a little greater than 50,000 vans. Although, a reader pointed one thing out I hadn’t caught — at 1,000 items every week, it’s in all probability already beating the Ford F-150 Lightning. It’s additionally already beating the Rivian R1T.

We’ll have to attend for Q2 numbers to return in, and there have been some issues not too long ago — Ford paused manufacturing of the F-150 Lightning for a bit, and Tesla paused manufacturing of the Cybertruck whereas coping with an accelerator pedal recall. Nevertheless, current numbers do present some issues to contemplate.

Within the 4th quarter of 2023, Ford offered 11,905 items of the F-150 Lightning. Within the 1st quarter of this 12 months, although, the overall was 7,743 Lightnings. Naturally, with about 13 weeks in 1 / 4, if Tesla will get to a mean of 1,000 Cybertrucks every week, that’s 13,000 in 1 / 4. With Tesla saying that Cybertruck manufacturing capability is slowly however steadily ramping up, a mean of 1,000 items every week within the 2nd quarter appears very doable.

After all, Ford might additionally ramp up manufacturing and gross sales of the F-150 Lightning. Although, with the drop from the 4th quarter to the first quarter and Ford CEO Jim Farley not too long ago speaking about challenges promoting as many EVs as they wished, that appears unlikely. A hopeful goal may simply be reaching that This autumn determine once more. After all, I’ve a lot greater hopes for the Ford F-150 Lightning resulting from all of its advantages over a traditional Ford F-150 and the way in style that mannequin is, however apparently there are nonetheless vital struggles breaking by means of to traditional truck patrons.

As for the Cybertruck, I assume it can get ramped as much as nicely past 1,000 items every week, and maybe even to 2,000 items every week by summer time, so I count on it can take the lead within the 2nd quarter. General, like a reader, John Donovan, mentioned, I’m guessing Tesla will promote round 100,000 Cybertrucks this 12 months. In line with Tesla’s shareholder letter printed this week, primarily based on the manufacturing gear in place, they count on that they’ve manufacturing capability for >125,000 Cybertrucks a 12 months for the time being (all on the gigafactory in Texas). That doesn’t imply they’re able to produce that many in a 12 months, after all — simply that the manufacturing gear and area are there. Elon Musk beforehand forecasted demand for about 150,000 Cybertrucks a 12 months. We’ll see, however Tesla could also be nicely on its technique to that concentrate on by the top of 2024.

So far as a forecast for the Ford F-150 Lightning or Rivian R1T? It’s very exhausting to guess. However I feel it’s very doubtless the Cybertruck wins the “electrical truck wars” this 12 months, and it’s exhausting to inform when Ford’s clients and executives or Rivian’s clients and executives will be capable to convey gross sales as much as 100,000+ a 12 months. Hopefully quickly!